buletin ştiin ific - Facultatea de Stiinte Economice - Universitatea din ...

Some Potential Econophysics’ Models for Real Economic Convergencematured enough to allow generalized applications, their field being called sometimes Econo-Engineering.There is a real contemporary necessity for exploring the new conceptions of StatisticalPhysics and Econophysics and for using their models and concepts or theoretical details, asimportant explicative factors for real economic convergence. The special potentiality ofEconophysics’ models is able to reveal new prognosis more and more relevant related toconvergence of Romanian economy into the EU.4. Some potential Econophysics’ ModelsThe Econophysics’ models are often better than the model of classical statistics, or theeconometrical model. As far as the econometrical model is concerned, even John MaynardKeynes had said that it couldn’t make further progress unless it invented new, better models. Inthe field of the forecasts, the progress consists in gradual improvements on the models, inchoosing new methods of model optimization. In order for a model to be able to preserve itsgenerality and value as a modality of thinking, it is necessary that it should not contain realvalues for its variable functions, because otherwise it becomes unusable. In economics,introducing figures into a model conduces to annulling its value from the standpoint ofperennialness use, because the figures will not match another test. A conclusion of the thinkingspecific to Econometry, and implicitly of that specific to classical statistics, could be that turninga model into an exclusively quantitative formula means destroying its usefulness as a predictioninstrument... Through generalization, the physical thinking construes the model by attaching to ita constant, which is dependent on the medium/environment (for instance, the Econophysics’models centred on the physical model of al diffusion). Applied to the economic medium, themodel of diffusion in the science of physics consists in deriving a retail price on the market ofpromissory notes and certificates (exchanging for price “x” the stock on the economic marketcould be considered a random, or chance, variable among the dealers, which allows to construe,through derivation, a diffusion model on the market in question, a model which is subject to therules of an equation of the type of the Brownian movement, in the case of a time-dependentdistribution f (x, t), and starting from the market price in the stock):2∂ƒ ( x, t) 1 ∂ ƒ ( x,t)= ×(1)2 2∂t k ∂xThe viability of the model in understanding real economic convergence consists in the variabilityof the coefficient “k 2 ” as compared to the specificity of the economical medium, that is to say adistinct diffusion through activities generating GDP or net income per inhabitant, in completelydifferent economies, like “water in completely different soils with respect to structure andcomposition”. Very much as the measuring process gets us acquainted with quantum thinking,the concepts of statistical collective and ensemble, being tantamount to a number of sequences ofprobabilities and mean values of the variables of quantum physics, allow the mental associationsamong molecules or particles, and economic agents, or subjects. The world of physics thinkingcan impose to statistical thinking the probabilistic character of its forecasts, even in the case of apure statistical collective, gradually eliminating the exclusively deterministic models ofprognosis specific to classical statistics. Probabilistic density will thus generate forecastingmodels based on the probabilistic thinking structured in distinct scenarios. The merit of thequantum physics, of acknowledging its limits in foreseeing future events, centring round theprinciple of uncertainty, will become familiar to statistics, as well. Statistical thinking will alsotake over, in future, the simultaneity of the states of particle or wave, from quantum statistics, inan alternative approach to the various specific statistical units defined through binary states [16],[17].Other models could be distributions of the form that follows a power law as:59