MARTIN THIEL ET AL.reported (Neill et al. 2006). Recently, patches <strong>of</strong> C. fragile have been observed within <strong>the</strong> MPA(R. Villablanca personal observations), highlighting <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> considering connectivitywith surrounding areas <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> constraints <strong>of</strong> aquaculture sites for selecting location <strong>of</strong> MPAs(Micheli et al. 2004).The establishment <strong>of</strong> MPAs in Chile has so far been based on anecdotal recommendations (e.g.,resource management, tourist attractions) ra<strong>the</strong>r than scientific criteria. This approach is consideredinadequate to effectively protect biodiversity (Meir et al. 2004, Su<strong>the</strong>rl<strong>and</strong> et al. 2004). Currentstrategies for implementing MPA networks require a <strong>system</strong>atic planning conservation method toidentify optimal sites for protection <strong>of</strong> biodiversity (Sayre et al. 2000, Beck & Odaya 2001). Thefirst step in planning an MPA is <strong>the</strong> assessment <strong>and</strong> mapping (Geographic Information System —GIS) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal marine biodiversity, <strong>the</strong> physical environment <strong>and</strong> major threats (e.g., humanuses) <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> identification <strong>of</strong> priority sites using Decision Support Systems (DSS) based onalgorithms (Sala et al. 2002, Leslie et al. 2003). A DSS based on species richness has been usedto identify priority areas for marine vertebrate conservation along <strong>the</strong> Chilean coast (Tognelli et al.2005). Habitat classification is generally considered as <strong>the</strong> conservation goal in <strong>the</strong> DSS (Robertset al. 2003). However, benthic surveys along <strong>the</strong> Chilean coast (C. Gaymer & C. Dumont unpublisheddata) revealed that communities are probably more appropriate to characterise <strong>the</strong> benthicenvironment <strong>and</strong> consider <strong>the</strong> eco<strong>system</strong> processes (e.g., trophic cascades; Shears & Babcock 2003),ecological interactions (e.g., predator-prey; Micheli et al. 2004) <strong>and</strong> population connectivity (e.g.,larval dispersal; Palumbi 2003). Moreover, <strong>the</strong>re is an urgent need for more scientific informationin Chilean marine biodiversity (e.g., <strong>the</strong>re is a lack <strong>of</strong> taxonomic expertise), population connectivity(e.g., identifying source <strong>and</strong> sink populations) <strong>and</strong> ecological processes (in particular speciesinteractions in subtidal habitats are poorly studied).Although ecological knowledge is a key component in developing MPAs, <strong>the</strong> managementeffectiveness is <strong>the</strong> most important challenge for <strong>the</strong> success <strong>of</strong> an MPA (Mascia 2004, Pomeroyet al. 2004). A major difficulty arises from <strong>the</strong> way in which marine reserves <strong>and</strong> MUMPAs havebeen established in Chile. The former were created by an imposition from <strong>the</strong> <strong>central</strong> authority(fisheries ministry) without consulting <strong>the</strong> stakeholders, who are mostly in disagreement with thisnew status. This establishment strategy has turned enforcement into a complicated task for <strong>the</strong>fisheries authority, <strong>and</strong> this may turn into a major threat for <strong>the</strong> success <strong>of</strong> present <strong>and</strong> future MPAs.For example, since its creation in 1997, <strong>the</strong> marine reserve La Rinconada has been affected byfrequent illegal extractions <strong>of</strong> scallops (M. Avendaño personal observations). Social conflicts due tolack <strong>of</strong> communication between <strong>the</strong> authority <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> stakeholders are also present within <strong>the</strong> recentlycreated marine reserves Isla Choros-Damas <strong>and</strong> Isla Chañaral. In contrast, a participative processtook place in <strong>the</strong> establishment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> MUMPA Isla Gr<strong>and</strong>e de Atacama, incorporating most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>relevant actors (i.e., administrative authorities, stakeholders, managers, scientists <strong>and</strong> fishermen),<strong>of</strong>fering <strong>the</strong> opportunity to evaluate contrasting interests in order to reduce potential conflicts. Socialcosts should be evaluated before <strong>the</strong> establishment <strong>of</strong> MPAs <strong>and</strong> a formal educational process shouldbe implemented by <strong>the</strong> authorities to teach <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> MPAs in developing sustainableexploitation <strong>of</strong> resources (Mascia 2004). The government should also negotiate compensations <strong>and</strong>propose alternative activities (e.g., tourism) to fishermen, who are <strong>the</strong> ancestral users <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> MPAareas, <strong>and</strong> avoid creating high expectations (Mascia 2004, Sobel & Dahlgren 2004).Ideally, an international MPA network (from Ecuador to Chile) including <strong>the</strong> connectivity amongMPAs should be implemented to effectively preserve biodiversity in <strong>the</strong> HCS. This should be achievedusing <strong>the</strong> support <strong>of</strong> international tools <strong>and</strong> agreements, <strong>and</strong> international non-governmental organisations(NGOs) in order to co-ordinate <strong>and</strong> improve <strong>the</strong> quality <strong>of</strong> scientific information <strong>and</strong> reduce<strong>the</strong> costs (Balmford et al. 2004). Moreover, <strong>the</strong> Chilean government must contribute to funding forimplementation <strong>and</strong> functioning <strong>of</strong> MPAs as successful conservation experiences from all over <strong>the</strong>298
THE HUMBOLDT CURRENT SYSTEM OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHILEworld have demonstrated that self-funding (e.g., through tourism business) is not feasible (Balmfordet al. 2004).Outlook, long-term research vision <strong>and</strong> future research frontiersAn outlook <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pressing scientific questions <strong>and</strong> tasks to be addressed in <strong>the</strong> short/mid-termfuture (during <strong>the</strong> next decade) within <strong>the</strong> HCS <strong>of</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>and</strong> <strong>central</strong> Chile should, as a minimum,include (1) studies <strong>of</strong> ocean–atmosphere interactions <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>fshore oceanography, (2) research ininshore <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>fshore oxygen-minimum eco<strong>system</strong>s, (3) research on inner inshore coastal oceanography<strong>and</strong> benthic-pelagic linkages, (4) development <strong>of</strong> an eco<strong>system</strong>-based adaptive resourcemanagement approach to fisheries that integrates socioeconomic aspects, (5) implementation <strong>of</strong> acoastal overarching network <strong>system</strong> for marine conservation-management, (6) novel approaches incoastal mariculture, (7) studies <strong>of</strong> marine non-indigenous species (NIS), (8) marine molecularbiology, particularly on genomics, <strong>and</strong> (9) training <strong>of</strong> Chilean marine taxonomists.A long-term HCS vision (during <strong>the</strong> coming two decades) should also, as a minimum, include(1) intensification <strong>of</strong> precautionary <strong>and</strong> integrative eco<strong>system</strong> management; (2) implementation <strong>of</strong>a high-sea conservation policy; (3) intensification <strong>of</strong> research on <strong>the</strong> continental slope, deep-sea<strong>and</strong> abyssal eco<strong>system</strong>s; (4) scientific <strong>and</strong> technological research on deep-sea gas (methane)hydrates; <strong>and</strong> (5) evaluations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> future climate change.Short/mid-term scientific outlookResearch on ocean–atmosphere interactions <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>fshore oceanographyThe HCS <strong>of</strong>fers unique opportunities for <strong>of</strong>fshore oceanographic studies (e.g., Strub et al. 1998)<strong>and</strong> considered as a whole, Chile <strong>and</strong> Peru represent between 15% <strong>and</strong> 20% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s fisheryl<strong>and</strong>ings. Large-scale fluctuations in ocean climate (ENSO <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> PDO) dominate interannual <strong>and</strong>interdecadal variability in <strong>the</strong> ocean, which in turn are linked to upwelling <strong>and</strong> climate changes(Chavez et al. 2003) <strong>and</strong> are considered key elements in <strong>the</strong> HCS functioning. Upwelling <strong>system</strong>spresently are experiencing ‘anomalous changes’ such as pr<strong>of</strong>ound changes in <strong>the</strong> physical <strong>and</strong>biogeochemical properties in <strong>the</strong> California Current Systems (Freel<strong>and</strong> et al. 2003, Grantham et al.2004), massive nitrogen loss in <strong>the</strong> Benguela upwelling <strong>system</strong> (Kuypers et al. 2005), <strong>and</strong> hydrogensulphide eruptions in <strong>the</strong> Atlantic Ocean <strong>of</strong>f sou<strong>the</strong>rn Africa <strong>and</strong> linked abrupt degradation <strong>of</strong>upwelling <strong>system</strong>s (Bakun & Weeks 2004, Weeks et al. 2004, Arntz et al. 2006). Such interannual<strong>and</strong> decadal variability <strong>and</strong> anomalous changes may intensify due to global climate changes, whichwill also affect <strong>the</strong> HCS, causing important changes in productivity, biogeochemical cycling <strong>and</strong>fisheries. Research on <strong>the</strong>se <strong>and</strong> related oceanographic topics is urgently needed for <strong>the</strong> HCS.Research on inshore <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>fshore oxygen-minimum eco<strong>system</strong>sOxygen-minimum zones (OMZs) in <strong>the</strong> ocean generally form along <strong>the</strong> EBCs. The decomposition<strong>of</strong> upwelling-derived biomass in combination with sluggish circulation <strong>of</strong> mid-water massesstrongly enhance <strong>the</strong> hypoxia conditions, as is <strong>the</strong> case in <strong>the</strong> HCS (Levin & Gage 1998, Moraleset al. 1999, Levin 2002, Helly & Levin 2004, Ulloa & De Pol 2004). The HCS is characterised by<strong>the</strong> relative shallowness <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oxygen-minimum layer. The OMZ produces peculiar environmentswith organisms highly resistant to low oxygen concentrations (Levin et al. 2001, Gallardo et al.2004). These environments are unique in <strong>the</strong> HCS <strong>and</strong> quite different from those <strong>of</strong>f California(Arntz et al. 2006). They <strong>of</strong>fer diverse opportunities to develop frontier research, ranging from299