Environmental Scan - Government of Nova Scotia

Physician Resource PlanningAn Environmental Scan3.4 Environmental Scan Key ObservationsContextThe provincial population context forhealth human resource planning isreflected in the adjacent graph. Thebottom line represents the constantpopulation of approximately 945,000forecasted to 2021. The upper dottedline represents the standardized, forhealth service utilization, populationforecast for the same period. In otherwords because the population will haveincreased chronic disease prevalence(assuming no change in the currenttrend) and be 6% older on average by2021, it will consume health servicesequivalent to a population of 1,100,000.So, while the actual population will showvirtually no change in size, the impact onhealth service utilization if chronicdisease prevalence does not stabilize,combined with an aging population, willbe as if the population size increased16%. The adjacent graph illustrates theincreased utilization of health services inNova Scotia as a population with highchronic disease prevalence ages.Figure 1 Nova Scotia Actual and Adjusted Population Forecast, 2010-2021Figure 2 Relative #Physician Services Utilized by Age, Nova Scotia 2010A well-designed, evidence-basedintegrated physician resource plan is acritical requirement in order toeffectively direct the health care systemto meet the future needs of the population in an appropriate, affordable, quality, and equitable manner.The following key observations reflect the cumulative research, analysis, modeling, and forecasting generatedover the course of the project and documented in this final report. These observations serve two specificpurposes: to provide context within which the subsequent recommendations can be interpreted, and toidentify to the reader key developments in the national, provincial, and local environments that are particularlyrelevant to PRP planning, implementation, and its ongoing maintenance and enhancement.12 | Page Social Sector Metrics Inc. & Health Intelligence Inc. | 12/31/2011