Environmental Scan - Government of Nova Scotia

Physician Resource PlanningAn Environmental ScanRetirement - 31% of the current workforce will retire by 2021. This rate is consistent with nationalaverages.Gender – Gender shift will continue in all specialties, especially in family practice, medical specialties, anddiagnostic specialties. Female physicians work less over the course of their careers than males. 42.1% offamily physician FTEs are female however 63% of PGME 1st year trainees are female. The adult medicalspecialties are 32% female now and this ratio will continue to increase to 53% over time. Paediatrics is 48%female and this will change somewhat over time to 50%-55%. Surgical specialties are 18% female currentlyand this will increase to 45% overall but with significant variation by surgical specialty.International Medical Graduates (IMGs) – Postgraduate trainee positions for Canadian citizens andpermanent residents have increased by 57% (4,011 positions) nationally since 2000. This will have adramatic downward effect on the need for IMG positions.National comparison of population to generalist physician FTE ratios – Compared to the national averagepopulation per FTE Nova Scotia has:o 4% fewer General Surgeons at 1:18,258 population compared to 1:17,481 nationally;o 5% fewer Family Physicians at 1:997 population compared to 1:947 nationally;o 8% fewer Obstetrician/Gynaecologists at 1:19,818 population compared to 1:18,335 nationally;o 54% fewer General Internal Medicine specialists at 1:21,652 compared to 1:14,058 nationally;o 24% more Psychiatrists at 1:7,268 population compared to 1:9,016 nationally;o 44% more General Paediatricians at 1:4,075 population under age 18 years compared to 1:7,287 underage 18 years nationally;Individual SpecialtiesFigure 16 Provincial ratio of population per FTE by Functional Specialty, March 31, 2010 (Source: PHReD)The adjacent figure is a list, bylicensed specialty, of thenumber of FTEs as of March 31,2010 and relative to the NovaScotia population.Among the generalistdisciplines the FTE topopulation ratios are:• Family/general practice 1:1,121;• General internal medicine1:21,652;• Psychiatry 1:7,268;• General paediatrics 1:4,075under age 18;• General surgery 1:18,258;and• Obstetrics and gynaecology1:19,818.(Source: MSI, PHReD, AFPdata, Departmental review)24 | Page Social Sector Metrics Inc. & Health Intelligence Inc. | 12/31/2011