Environmental Scan - Government of Nova Scotia

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Physician Resource PlanningAn Environmental ScanSection 2.NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTA REVIEW OF PRP CONCEPTUAL MODELS, NATIONAL TRENDS,AND THE CANADIAN PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE42 | Page Social Sector Metrics Inc. & Health Intelligence Inc. | 12/31/2011
7 CONCEPTUAL MODELS7.1 Methodologies - GeneralPhysician Resource PlanningAn Environmental ScanThe Department of Health and Wellness has predetermined that population health needs are the key drivers ofPRP. This was identified in the PRP Strategic Framework earlier in this report; the Consultant strongly supportsthis approach.In terms of the breadth of commonly employed PRP methodologies, there are many examples in the literature.They can be grouped into four general categories: demand-based, population ratio, benchmarking, andpopulation health-based need.The Consultant has researched the relevant literature (see list at conclusion of this subsection). The mostcommonly asked and frequently unanswered question is, "How should a forecasting model effectively measuredemand and need?” Each methodology has strengths and weaknesses. The following subsection provides anoverview of the four most common methodologies.7.2 Demand-BasedA demand-based formula extrapolates future physician utilization levels from current ones and then estimatessupply requirements accordingly. If current utilization levels are appropriate, then FTE forecasts can beundertaken with a fairly high degree of accuracy. This approach does not control for "supply-induced" demandand frequently incorporates survey-based data."Demand-based models supported by ‘supply-based’ formulae extrapolate future physician supply levels fromcurrent ones based upon physician demography, medical education system, and physician migration."Figure 22 Nova Scotia – Relative #Services utilized by age cohort (2009/10) (Source: Department of Healthand Wellness MSI)The graph isillustrative of theapproach todemand-basedforecasting. Theutilization ofphysician servicestoday isextrapolated intothe future andadjusted for thechanging broaddemographics ofthe population(i.e., age, gender).The U.S. National Department of Health 2 employs a demand-based approach, but with reference to alternativeapproaches described in the literature to estimate physician requirements, including a needs-based approach2 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020, October 2006.43 | Page Social Sector Metrics Inc. & Health Intelligence Inc. | 12/31/2011
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Environmental Scan - Government of Nova Scotia

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