Ships of the Year

MARKET REPORTS
Wet – OPEC cut hits tanker market next year
The oil producing nations’ organisation
OPEC will meet before Christmas
and it’s likely that a decision will be taken
to cut production by 1–1.5 million barrels
a day to hike oil prices. This will hit the
number of fixtures from Middle East, West
Tankers will be hit by OPEC reductions and slowing demand next year.
When dry bulk owners give away their
vessels at operating cost, new trade patterns
for grain emerge. “Ocean shipping
costs are so low that it would be cheaper
for south Indian buyers to import Russian
wheat than move wheat from north India
by train”, says a trader to the news bureau
Reuters. Producers in Russia and Ukraine
are now finding customers in Asia and
South America, far beyond their traditional
markets in Europe and Middle East.
This could however be a short-lived
phenomenon. Last week saw the Capesize
time charter average almost double to USD
4,500 per day as China reappeared on the
market with cargoes from India and some
from Australia, reports Fearnleys. According
to Clarksons, the average earnings for
Capesize vessels hiked by more than 100
per cent last week to USD 9,030 per day
on a week-to-week basis.
In the Panamax sector, rates continued
to slide in a softening market prior to the
holidays, and the pick-up in the Capesize
market did not fuel the Panamax sector.
Africa, North Africa and the Caribbean.
Additionally, there will be pressure on the
oil demand side also next year. The IEA
predicts consumption to grow marginally
next year, while the US agency EIA expects
a fall by 450,000 barrels per day.
USD 3,300 was reported for a Transatlantic
round-voyage. The Clarkson average earnings
estimate for a modern vessel stood at
USD 4,366 per day, down by more than 25
per cent on a week-to-week basis.
Last week saw little activity in the Handy
department, with fixes around USD 8,000
Last week saw a halt in the VLCC markets,
especially from West Africa, where
fixes for USAC bound cargoes slumped
from WS 195 to WS 147.5. The North Sea
Aframax market was stable with rates hovering
around WS 185, reports Fearnleys.
The Clarkson average earnings estimate
fell by nine per cent to USD 66,123 per
day.
The Aframax earnings estimate fell by
as much, to USD 64,592 per day. This is
however well above the USD 46,816 average
for 2008.
The Baltic LR market was two-tiered
with modern vessels fixed at WS 160-170
basis 60,000 tons, while older vessels had
to settle with around WS 115. Rates were
stable for handies in NW Europe at WS
215 basis 22,000 ts. Clarkson also reports
steady earnings on most dirty and clean
products trades, with a Baltic to UK/Continent
fetching around USD 16,364 in a
fix per day in earnings. The average earnings
for a clean loaded handy was steady at
USD 22,298.
Dry – Cheap freight changes trade patterns
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan ’07
Apr ’07
for an Atlantic round voyage. According
to Clarkson Research, there is just to many
vessels open and to few cargoes in the market,
leading to an almost 10 per cent fall in
daily average earnings, to USD 5,250 per
day.
rolf p nilsson
80 SCANDINAVIAN SHIPPING GAZETTE • DECEMBER 19, 2008
Jul ’07
CONNY WICKBERG
Dry bulk freight development
Atlantic round voyage,USD/day � Capesize � Panamax � Handymax
Oct ’07
Jan ’08
Apr ’08
Jul ’08
Oct ’08
Source: Fearnleys/SSG, December 12, 2008