20 - Year Growth Plan - City of Kendleton

Appendix C. Population Estimate and ForecastThis appendix provides detailed information on data and methodologies used toestimate current population within the Kendleton ETJ and forecast long-term populationthrough 2035. Data is provided by the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) 2035Regional Growth Forecast available at http://www.hgac.com/community/socioeconomic/forecasts/archive/2035.aspx. H-GAC provides population estimates and projections invarious types of study sizes, including at the city level. However, Kendleton is muchsmaller in size and located farther away from areas within rapid growth. As a resultKendleton’s population estimate and forecast is skewed according to far larger studyareas.Three study areas are reviewed in this Appendix: regional analysis zones (RAZ), zipcodes, and census tracts. Estimates and forecast data is available as spreadsheets andgeographic information system (GIS) shapefiles.C.1 Population EstimateAccording to the US Census 1 , Kendleton’s current population within its corporate limitsis 380. However, most of the community’s long-term growth addressed in thisdocument will likely occur within its ETJ. Kendleton ETJ population estimate is based onpublished estimates of other study areas identified by H-GAC.GIS shapefile data shows the three study areas that intersect Kendelton’s ETJ are RAZ#148, Zip Code #77417, and Census Tract #6758 (Figures C-1 through C-3).Kendleton’s ETJ has an area of 3,530 acres. Table C-A shows three different 2010Kendleton ETJ population estimates based proportionately on each of these study areas.Table C-A. 2010 Kendleton ETJ Population Estimates Based on RAZ #148, ZipCode 77417, Census Tract #6758RAZ#148Zip Code77417Census Tract#6758Population 9,476 2 3,498 3 4,708 4Acres 69,096 37,274 80890Size of Kendleton ETJCompared to Each StudyAreaKendleton PopulationEstimate3,530 /69,096 = .05.05 x 9,476= 4733,530 /37,274 =.09.09 x 3,498= 3143,530 / 80890 =.04.04 x 4,708=188Sources2,3,4H-GACAs Table C-A shows, the estimated ETJ population derived from Census Tract #6758and Zip Code 77417 is even less than the actual population within Kendleton’s corporatelimits. This suggests that both of these study areas are even more rural than Kendleton.The next step is to determine which of the three study areas has populationcharacteristics similar to the current population of 380. Table C-B compares the20-Year Growth Plan Appendix C, Page 1