ECONOMIC

TABLE 29.—Export shares in trade in manufactures of 11 industrial countries, 1966—76[Seasonallyadjusted]PeriodUnitedStates iUnitedKingdom 2Germany France Italy Japan Others 3Percent of total value *1966..1970..1972..1973..1974.1975.1975: III.IV..1976: L._.II5..III K20.118.516.116.117.217.718.718.317.217.517.513.410.810.09.48.89.39.29.49.28.88.719.319.820.222.121.720.320.119.620.520.421.18.68.79.39.59.310.210.19.99.710.39.76.97.27.66.86.77.57.97.96.66.37.59.711.713.212.814.513.613.613.514.814.714.722.023.323.523.321.821.420.421.522.022.020.7Percent of total volume *1966..1970..1972.1973.1974.1975.1975:111....IV...1976:1l|_.III 5 .20.818.517.518.920.320.220.919.918.618.918.812.610.89.79.89.39.69.49.59.29.28.919.119.819.520.020.418.918.918.719.519.319.68.08.79.28.89.39.49.39.08.89.69.16.87.27.57.27.17.67.97.86.96.67.610.011.712.912.113.013.613.514.115.815.415.322.723.323.723.220.620.720.121.021.221.020.71 Excluding special category exports.2 Including reexports, and adjusted for underrecording.3 Belgium-Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland.* Total value and total volume refer to total exports of manufactures of the 11 countries in this table.5 Partly estimated.Note.—Details may not add to totals because of rounding.Source: National Institute Economic Review, London.turing large contracts. The certainty of timely delivery and the relative assurancethat contracts will not be reopened because of cost overruns apparentlymake it worthwhile for the purchaser not to speculate on the possibleexchange rate advantage that might derive from placing contracts ina "weak currency" country. If this interpretation is correct, improvement inunderlying deficits may take a long time to become evident, even after theadoption of adequate measures to correct the underlying conditions.The large swing in world trade from an actual decline in 1975 to abovenormalgrowth rates in 1976—equaling about twice the rate of growthin GNP—has eased external payments strains for a number of countries,especially the primary producers. The worldwide trade expansion was reflectedin a shift in the U.S. trade balance of about $20 billion (at an annualrate) from a surplus of almost $9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1975 to adeficit of about $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 1976. This change in theU.S. trade position, which was in large part cyclical, was not, however, accompaniedby similar changes in the trade positions of Germany and Japan.115