ECONOMIC

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TABLE 22.—Income transfer programs, 1974-76ProgramUnit1974IV1II1975IIIIV11976II IIIIVUnemployment:Total number of personsUnemployment Compensation:Beneficiaries: TotalPermanent programsFSB and SUA*Benefit payments: TotalsPermanent programsFSB and SUAFood Stamp Program:BeneficiariesBenefit payments _Aid to Families with DependentChildren:Beneficiaries: TotalUnemD 1 oved fathersBenefit payments 3__Old-age, Survivors, and DisabilityInsurance:Beneficiaries: Total 9Retired workers and dependents.Disabled persons and dependentsBenefit payments 7Medicaid:BeneficiariesBenefit paymentsMedicare:Benefit paymentsSupplemental Security Income:BeneficiariesBenefit payments 3Millions . .Millions*dodoBillions of dollars *_. do...do . .Millions»Billions of dollars
ment and earnings show little cyclical sensitivity (Table 22). These programsare nevertheless major sources of income redistribution. In 1976 total benefitswere $10 billion under AFDC, $73 billion under social security, and $6billion under SSI.The AFDC program for unemployed fathers (AFDC-UF), now availablein 28 States, grew significantly in 1976, though it is still a small program.AFDC-UF benefits had been available only to families with low incomeand few assets and with an unemployed father not eligible forunemployment compensation. In June 1975, however, the Supreme Courtruled that a State with the program could not deny AFDC-UF benefitssimply because the father was eligible for unemployment compensation,thus permitting such fathers to choose between the programs. For low-incomefamilies with several dependents, benefits under AFDC-UF may exceedthose available under unemployment compensation. The average monthlycash benefit among AFDC-UF families was $325 in the first half of 1976,about the same as the average monthly unemployment compensation benefit.Because they tend to have low earnings when they work, the average AFDC-UF claimant would have a lower than average unemployment compensationbenefit. In addition, participation in AFDC-UF includes categoricaleligibility for food stamps and medicaid. As more low-income familiesbecame aware of these greater benefits and as more workers exhausted theirFSB entitlement, AFDC-UF participation increased. From June 1974 toJune 1975, when the unemployment rate increased from 5.3 percent to8.7 percent, AFDC-UF participation rose from 86,000 families to 112,000families. By June 1976 the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.6 percent,but participation had increased to 146,000 families.There are three major in-kind income transfer programs: medicaid, medicare,and food stamps. Medicaid subsidized medical care for persons onAFDC, and for other low-income persons who are medically indigent, at acost of $15 billion in 1976. Medicare provided medical insurance at a costof $18 billion for the aged and disabled receiving social security benefitsand for persons with end-stage renal (kidney) disease. These programs exhibitsome cyclical sensitivity. The food stamp program, which providessubsidized food vouchers for low-income families, is the most cyclicallysensitive in-kind income transfer program. With the improvement in theeconomy the average monthly participation in the food stamp program decreased,although at an annual rate the program costs were about thesame as in 1975 (Table 22).One measure of the adverse impact of a recession is its effect on thepoverty rate, the proportion of the population represented by families orunrelated individuals with money incomes below the poverty level. Thepoverty threshold in 1975 for a nonfarm family of four was officially definedas $5,500 in money income as measured in the March 1976 supplement tothe Current Population Survey. Because of the growth over time in realfamily money income, the poverty rate declined from 22.4 percent in 195989
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ECONOMICTRANSMITTEDTO THE CONGRESSJ
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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manent tax rate reductions. My prop
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will help shield us from disruption
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executive branch must undertake a c
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lasting implications of the changes
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THE PRESIDENT:LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
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CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC REVIEW OF 1976
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List of Tables and Charts—Continu
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CHAPTER 1Economic Policy and Outloo
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GENERAL POLICY PRINCIPLESTo assure
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3. Economic initiatives should be b
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TABLE 1.—The market value and the
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on investment would increase with i
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MONETARY POLICYThe Federal Reserve
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like the latter part of 1976. The 4
Page 43 and 44: PRIVATE CONSUMPTIONThe growth of re
Page 45 and 46: NET EXPORTSIn real terms net export
Page 47 and 48: LABOR FORGE AND UNEMPLOYMENTIt is e
Page 49 and 50: led to large first-year catchup inc
Page 51 and 52: Consumer prices of fuels during 197
Page 53 and 54: other workers. Productivity is meas
Page 55 and 56: Since the mid-1950s a dramatic chan
Page 57 and 58: women's labor force participation;
Page 59 and 60: The full-employment benchmark has b
Page 61 and 62: Chart 4Gross National Product, Actu
Page 63 and 64: groups can be a useful supplement t
Page 65 and 66: TABLE 7.—Changes in gross nationa
Page 67 and 68: Relative price movements were appar
Page 69 and 70: August was followed by a 20 percent
Page 71 and 72: main price indexes were significant
Page 73 and 74: A broader measure of labor costs, c
Page 75 and 76: TABLE 13.—Output, profits, net in
Page 77 and 78: TABLE 15.—Federal Government rece
Page 79 and 80: In the unified budget the total sho
Page 81 and 82: The permanent changes in the Tax Re
Page 83 and 84: tial output and the full-employment
Page 85 and 86: For this reason, although the rate
Page 87 and 88: quarter a year later. The actual gr
Page 89 and 90: Partly as a result of the desire of
Page 91 and 92: widespread among demographic groups
Page 93: of longer-term trends. Over the pas
Page 97 and 98: production or real GNP, and this al
Page 99 and 100: percent from 1973. The cost of petr
Page 101 and 102: COMMODITY MARKETS AND FOOD PRICESWo
Page 103 and 104: TABLE 25.—Real income per farm an
Page 105 and 106: While circumstances have enabled a
Page 107 and 108: The policy actions taken in 1975 an
Page 109 and 110: TABLE 27.—Changes in industrial p
Page 111 and 112: States some underspending by public
Page 113 and 114: continued strong domestically gener
Page 115 and 116: GENERAL DEMAND TRENDSEconomic devel
Page 117 and 118: PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITSThe economic
Page 119 and 120: insurance funds. The requirement th
Page 121 and 122: TABLE 29.—Export shares in trade
Page 123 and 124: Chart 7—ContinuedINDEX, 1973=100
Page 125 and 126: widened and the possibility of borr
Page 127 and 128: Chart 8—ContinuedInterest Rates i
Page 129 and 130: Where stabilization policies are pe
Page 131 and 132: Germany grew more in line with outp
Page 133 and 134: TABLE 32.—Estimated disposition o
Page 135 and 136: ates, and tax changes that facilita
Page 137 and 138: facility is designed to help countr
Page 139 and 140: is necessary that the strongest eco
Page 141 and 142: A freezing of relative prices, eith
Page 143 and 144: implicit and explicit subsidies bui
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qualitative conclusions. For exampl
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For some youths unemployment is inv
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may be as low as 10 percent. Thus t
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large subsidies through the tax cre
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in the transportation and public ut
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trust exemption permits motor carri
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purchase less expensive air travel.
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produced with higher-cost energy so
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of establishing efficient methods o
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in the future. Consequently current
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demand and supply at support prices
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with stringent controls on peanut a
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aspects of the tax system which imp
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TABLE 35—Change in aUer-tax inter
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and raise the return to capital inc
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come, social security encourages pe
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE COUNCILThe
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the Administration's economic polic
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member of the senior staff, and Rob
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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PageB-76. Estimated ownership of pu
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-4.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B~6.—Gross national product
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-15.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-17.—Relation of gross nat
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TABLE B-19.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-20.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-21.—Disposition of person
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19291933Year orquarter1939...194019
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TABLE B~25.- -Number and money inco
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TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
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TABLE B-28.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-30.— Unemployment by dura
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TABLE B-32.—Wage and salary worke
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TABLE B-33.—Average weekly hours
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TABLE B-35.—Productivity and rela
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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TABLE B-39.—Industrial production
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TABLE B-41.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-42.—New housing units sta
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TABLE B-44.—Sales and inventories
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TABLE B-46.'—Manufacturers 1 new
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TABLE B-48.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B—50.—Consumer price inde
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TABLE B-52.—Percent changes in co
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-54.—Wholesale price index
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TABLE B-56.—Percent changes in wh
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TABLE B-58.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-60.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-61.—Federal Reserve Bank
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TABLE B-63.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-64,—Instalment credit ext
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TABLE B-66.— Mortgage debt outsta
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GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-68.—Fed
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TABLE B-69.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-71.—Receipts and expendit
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TABLE B-73.—Receipts and expendit
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TABLE B-75.—Interest-bearing publ
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TABLE B-77.—Average length and ma
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TABLE B-79.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B—80.—-Corporate profits
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TABLE B1-81.—Sales, profits, and
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TABLE B-83.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-85.—Current assets and li
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TABLE B-87.—Common stock prices a
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192919331939Year orquarter19401941
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TABLE B-91.—Farm population, empl
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TABLI. B-93.—Selected measures of
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-95.
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TABLE B-96.—U.S. merchandise expo
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. overseas loans a
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TABLE B-100.—U.S. reserve assets,
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TABLE B-102.—Price changes in int
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ECONOMIC

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