ECONOMIC

increase in nominal wages in 1977 should be about 7 percent. The translationof wage rate increases into compensation per hour depends on interindustryshifts in employment, changes in the relative proportion of wageto salary workers, increases in private fringe benefits, and increases in publiclymandated supplements to wages. As noted above, it is estimated thattotal compensation per hour of work in the private sector will rise about 7^2percent in 1977.Although nearly one-fourth of all civilian workers are members of laborunions, only about 10 million, or 11 percent of total employees, are undermajor contracts covering 1,000 or more workers. Some believe, however, thatwage settlements in these sectors have a disproportionate impact on overallwage developments because of a demonstration effect. Consequently, inforecasting wages it is useful to examine the collective bargaining schedulefor the year ahead.The major collective bargaining contracts that expire this year or aresubject to wage renegotiation cover nearly 5 million workers (Table 3). Thisyear will be the second consecutive year of heavy collective bargaining in the3-year cycle. The average duration of contracts expiring in 1977 is 33 months.Thus most of these contracts were negotiated in 1974 or later, after the endof the Economic Stabilization Program and during a period of high inflation.The latter led to an expansion of coverage under cost-of-living adjustments(COLA) and high first-year wage increases. Hence some of the factors thatTABLE 3.—Calendar of major private nonfarm collective bargaining activity, 1977ContractexpirationsScheduled wagereopeningsPeriodPrincipal industryNumberWorkerscovered(thousands)NumberWorkerscovered(thousands)All years.2,2539,9842611977: Total.1,0334,721172January..FebruaryMarchApril....May..JunePetroleum refiningFood storesConstruction, food storesConstructionApparel, construction, lumber..Construction, utilities..633789145138143150116297333509529924222252JulyAugustSeptember.OctoberNovember..December..Construction, miningCommunications, steelMaritime, food storesTransportation equipment,do.Railroads, mining..61133707124591591,38120426068716124202241978 and beyondYear unknown or in negotiation l .8843363, 5601,703891 Bargaining units for which necessary information was not available include 212 agreements which expired prior toOctober 1976 (when these data were tabulated) covering 1,311,400 workers and 124 contracts which expired betweenOctober 1 and December 31,1976, covering 391,300 workers.Note.—Major agreements are those covering 1,000 or more workers.Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.42