ECONOMIC

8 to 20 percent for black females. In part this trend results from an increasein the proportion of all families headed by a woman, from 10 percent in1959 to 12 percent in 1972. However, while the incidence of poverty amongfemale-headed families declined in this period, it did not decline nearly asfast as for families headed by a male.The Male-Headed FamilyAmong male-headed families, the presence of children has a direct influenceon poverty status, since for a given income the more children there are,the higher the poverty-income threshold. Children also indirectly affect thefamily's income, because it is more difficult for a wife to work outside thehome when young children are present. In 1972, 31 percent of low-incomefamilies with a male head had three or more children, compared to 17 percentfor families above the poverty line. The presence of a working wifecan bring an otherwise poor family above the poverty line. Only 22 percentof the wives in low-income families headed by a male worked in 1972, comparedto 48 percent of wives in families above the poverty line.The number of children and the work experience of wives are also importantvariables affecting the ability of the poor to move up from poverty.One longitudinal survey which followed the poverty status of a cohort for5 years, starting in 1967, found that about 20 percent of nonaged familiesheaded by a male experienced steady income increases and ended the periodout of poverty. This group had significantly fewer children than those whoremained poor during those 5 years, and a larger proportion of wives whoincreased their labor market work over the period. However, a period of 5years is too short to determine whether this group is permanently upwardlymobile or simply experiences long-term fluctuations in its income position.Low earnings, per se, are still an important reason for poverty amongmale-headed families. Educational levels are very low for this group. In 1972only 29 percent were high school graduates or better, compared to 63 percentamong other male family heads. As might be expected, the poor werealso much more concentrated in low-income jobs, particularly farming: 20percent of employed men heading low-income families were farmersor farm laborers, compared to 4 percent among those not poor. In thefuture, as the level of education rises and as productivity change continuesto increase earnings, one would expect that the incidence of poverty (undera fixed standard) may come close to disappearing for this group.The Aged PoorThe population 65 or more years old increased as a percentage of thepoor from 1959 to 1970. Since then, however, the incidence of poverty hasdropped sharply for this group, from 24.6 percent in 1970 to 18.6 percentin 1972, and the aged represent a declining proportion of the poor. Thisrapid change is primarily due to across-the-board increases in social security164