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THE PRESIDENT:LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF <strong>ECONOMIC</strong> ADVISERS,Washington, D.C., January 28,1974.SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its AnnualReport, January 1974, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the EmploymentAct of 1946.Respectfully,HERBERT STEIN,Chairman.0WILLIAM J.FELLNER.GARY L. SEEVERS.13527-867 O - 74 - 2
Page 1: ECONOMICTRANSMITTEDTO THE CONGRESSF
Page 5: CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: of the inflation rate of 1973, and
Page 13: or permit incentives—including hi
Page 16 and 17: people of an easy time. Like our pa
Page 21 and 22: CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC PROBLEM
Page 23 and 24: PageGovernment Transfer Programs 16
Page 25 and 26: Page32. Change in Inputs Used in Fa
Page 27 and 28: CHAPTER 1Economic Problems and Poli
Page 29 and 30: eyond the early months, the course
Page 31 and 32: directly for consumption, particula
Page 33 and 34: pluses, which in one form or anothe
Page 35 and 36: POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING THE 1974 GOA
Page 37 and 38: TABLE 1.—Federal budget surplus o
Page 39 and 40: The rise in prices of petroleum pro
Page 41 and 42: Second, the United States can parti
Page 43 and 44: vironmental control, leasing of min
Page 45 and 46: cial institutions can operate with
Page 47 and 48: ciency of the entire transportation
Page 49 and 50: tem has to provide sufficient quant
Page 51 and 52: A more fundamental factor concerns
Page 53 and 54: CHAPTER 2Developments and Policy in
Page 55 and 56: The whole process depended, at leas
Page 57 and 58: The 11.5 percent increase in nomina
Page 59 and 60: HOUSINGIn early 1973 there were ind
Page 61 and 62: efunds must have contributed to the
Page 63 and 64: volume and the prices of farm expor
Page 65 and 66: TABLE 6.—Unemployment rates for s
Page 67 and 68: crepancy reflects the large increas
Page 69 and 70:
percent and much less during the ye
Page 71 and 72:
mated smooth trend from a period in
Page 73 and 74:
deflator. The rate during 1973 was
Page 75 and 76:
Chart 4Productivity, Compensation,
Page 77 and 78:
TABLE 14.—Changes in prices, cost
Page 79 and 80:
in 1970. Employee compensation cons
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weight in the CPI than in the defla
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It is interesting to note that afte
Page 85 and 86:
Comparisons between 1972 and 1973 s
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since general revenue sharing was i
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inflation and thus to raise the dem
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However, steps were taken to keep c
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Assistance to Mortgage MarketsMortg
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TABLE 21.—Measures of price and w
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TABLE 22.—Regulations of the cont
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TABLE 23.—Changes in consumer pri
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TABLE 24.—Supply-increasing actio
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pressures on farm and some major no
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after three of the four automobile
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strained the rate of spending or in
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The most comprehensive measure we h
Page 111 and 112:
program. The worldwide lag in agric
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is concerned. Some may very well ha
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come as no surprise. There is much
Page 117 and 118:
it at the existing price. While the
Page 119 and 120:
TABLE 29.—Use of energy inputs fo
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sumption to available supplies, the
Page 123 and 124:
Electric PowerUntil recently it was
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of consumer durables. There is cons
Page 127 and 128:
ecovery today. In some cases, there
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ment of vital energy supplies. This
Page 131 and 132:
payoff from such projects depends c
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met in 1975, but stipulates a "reas
Page 135 and 136:
was an underutilization of producti
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TABLE 33.—Production and producti
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The controls on soybean exports see
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which the private sector needs if i
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CHAPTER 5Distribution of IncomeIMPL
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in 1972 represent nearly a threefol
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from differences between lifetime i
Page 149 and 150:
measured income than some families
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TABLE 36.—Selected characteristic
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Chart 8Real Income Profiles of Coho
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TABLE 38.—Averageusual weekly ear
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The relative income difference wide
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similar relative effect on the inco
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tion about lifetime work experience
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egions outside the South, within ed
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erable occupational segregation by
Page 167 and 168:
In conclusion, it appears that the
Page 169 and 170:
1959, 14.6 percent of family heads
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enefits of about 50 percent from 19
Page 173 and 174:
Because of the lower work participa
Page 175 and 176:
to help mothers to become self-supp
Page 177 and 178:
and from 19 to 28 percent for black
Page 179 and 180:
Equity and Welfare ReformMany probl
Page 181 and 182:
Families on public assistance are a
Page 183 and 184:
Money TransfersAs the data in Table
Page 185 and 186:
the recipients. The data suggest th
Page 187 and 188:
CHAPTER 6The International Economy
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either through formal measures by t
Page 191 and 192:
ates between any two of their curre
Page 193 and 194:
lateral swap facilities had been in
Page 195 and 196:
It is difficult to get a precise es
Page 197 and 198:
United States in October, this did
Page 199 and 200:
quarters of 1972. There are two pos
Page 201 and 202:
voluntary, the existence of a surpl
Page 203 and 204:
TABLE 53-—Maximum percent change
Page 205 and 206:
TABLE 54.—Major changes in capita
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Changes in International Liquidity
Page 209 and 210:
over time a country's payments in f
Page 211 and 212:
The Bretton Woods Agreement permitt
Page 213 and 214:
in relation to the country's liquid
Page 215 and 216:
International Monetary Fund, which
Page 217 and 218:
88 percent. Since U.S. food prices
Page 219 and 220:
A reduction of trade barriers on a
Page 221 and 222:
In working out an approach to the n
Page 223 and 224:
Negotiating a New International Saf
Page 225 and 226:
limitations, either to deal with a
Page 227 and 228:
exporters do not alter their prices
Page 229 and 230:
foreign currency appreciation of 36
Page 231 and 232:
TABLE 57.—Changes in exchange rat
Page 233:
Appendix AACTIVITIES OF THE ADVISOR
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mittee member, presented results of
Page 239:
LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
Page 244 and 245:
Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy
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Council at a wide range of meetings
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ports, and congressional testimony.
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE:PageC
Page 256 and 257:
TABLE C-2.—Gross national product
Page 258 and 259:
TABLE C-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 260 and 261:
TABLE C—4.—Implicit price defla
Page 262 and 263:
Page 264 and 265:
Page 266 and 267:
TABLE C-9.—Gross national pro 3 u
Page 268 and 269:
TABLE C-ll.—Gross product origina
Page 270 and 271:
TABLE C-13.—Gross private domesti
Page 272 and 273:
TABLE C-15.—National income by ty
Page 274 and 275:
TABLE C-17.—Disposition of person
Page 276 and 277:
TABLE C-19.—Sources of personal i
Page 278 and 279:
TABLE C-20.—Sources and uses of g
Page 280 and 281:
TABLE C—22.—Number and money in
Page 282 and 283:
TABLE C-24.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 284 and 285:
TABLE C-25.—Civilian employment a
Page 286 and 287:
TABLE O27.—Unemployment by durati
Page 288 and 289:
TABLE C—29.—Wage and salary wor
Page 290 and 291:
TABLE C-30.—Average weekly hours
Page 292 and 293:
TABLE C-32.—Output per man-hour a
Page 294 and 295:
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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TABLE C—36.—Industrial producti
Page 298 and 299:
TABLE CV38.—New construction acti
Page 300 and 301:
TABLE C—39.—New housing starts
Page 302 and 303:
TABLE C-40.—Business expenditures
Page 304 and 305:
TABLE O42.—Manufacturers' shipmen
Page 306 and 307:
PRICESTABLE C-44.—Consumer price
Page 308 and 309:
TABLE C—46.—Consumer price inde
Page 310 and 311:
TABLE C—48.—Percent changes in
Page 312 and 313:
TABLE O49.—Wholesale price indexe
Page 314 and 315:
TABLE C~50.—Wholesale price index
Page 316 and 317:
Year andmonthMONEY STOCK, CREDIT, A
Page 318 and 319:
TABLE C-54.—Total funds raised in
Page 320 and 321:
TABLE C—55.—Private liquid asse
Page 322 and 323:
TABLE C-57.—Aggregate reserves an
Page 324 and 325:
TABLE G-58.—Bond yields and inter
Page 326 and 327:
TABLE C-60.—Instalment credit ext
Page 328 and 329:
TABLE C-62.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 330 and 331:
GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE C-64.—Fed
Page 332 and 333:
TABLE C-65.—Federal budget receip
Page 334 and 335:
TABLE C-67.—Receipts and expendit
Page 336 and 337:
TABLE C-69.—Receipts and expendit
Page 338 and 339:
TABLE C-71.—Public debt securitie
Page 340 and 341:
TABLE C-73.—Average length and ma
Page 342 and 343:
TABLE C-75.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 344 and 345:
TABLE C-76.—Relation of profits a
Page 346 and 347:
TABLE C-78.— Current assets and l
Page 348 and 349:
TABLE C-80.—Common stock prices\
Page 350 and 351:
AGRICULTURETABLE C-82.—Income of
Page 352 and 353:
TABLEC-84.—Farm population, emplo
Page 354 and 355:
TABLE C-86.—Selected measures of
Page 356 and 357:
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE C-88.
Page 358 and 359:
TABLE C-89.— U.S. merchandise exp
Page 360 and 361:
TABLE C-91.—U.S. overseas loans a
Page 362 and 363:
End of year ormonth1946 ..194719481
Page 364 and 365:
TABLE C-95.—Price changes in inte
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ECONOMIC

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