ECONOMIC

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CHAPTER 3. INFLATION CONTROL UNDER THE <strong>ECONOMIC</strong> STABILIZA-TION ACT 88The Economic Stabilization Program in 1973 88Phase III 89Phase III Is Tightened 94The Freeze 96Phase IV 97The Effectiveness of Controls 99Fairness of Controls 105Effect of Controls on Components of Output 107Summary 108CHAPTER 4. ENERGY and AGRICULTURE 110EnergyIllThe Energy Crisis 117Recovery from the Crisis 118Long-Term Prospects 122Energy and Environmental Policy 125Agriculture 128Agriculture: Fully Employed 128Agricultural Policy for the Future 133CHAPTER 5. DISTRIBUTION of INCOME 137Outline and Summary. 137The Change in Inequality of Family and Individual Income. 139Secular Changes 139Cyclical Changes 142Omitted Sources of Real Income and the Inequality ofWeil-Being , 142Determinants of Differences in Earnings Among Individuals. . 145Schooling 145Post-School Training 146Employment 149Earnings Differentials Between Groups 150Discrimination 150Race Differentials 150Sex Differentials 154Occupational Differences 158The Low-Income Population 161The Definition of Poverty 161The Decrease in Poverty 162The Characteristics of the Poor 16316
PageGovernment Transfer Programs 167Federal Transfers in 1973 167Aid to Families With Dependent Children 168Social Security and Supplemental Security Income 173Federal Food Subsidy Programs 174Medicare and Medicaid 175Income Distribution Effects of Money Transfer Programs. 176Supplement—The Variance of the Natural Logarithm of Income179CHAPTER 6. THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY IN 1973 181What Happened in 1973? 182How Governments Behaved in the Monetary Arena 196Planning the Future International Monetary System 202How Governments Behaved in the Trade Arena 209Planning the Future International Trading System 212Supplement—Measurement of Effective Changes in ExchangeRates 220APPENDIXES:A. Activities of the Advisory Committee on the Economic Roleof Women 227B. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council ofEconomic Advisers During 1973 231C. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, andProduction 243List of Tables and ChartsTables1. Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit Under Alternative Assumptions,National Income Accounts Basis, Calendar Years1969-74 312. Changes in Gross National Product in Current and ConstantDollars, 1968 to 1973 503. Changes in Manufacturing Plant and Equipment Outlays andValue of Starts, 1971 to 1973 514. Changes in Manufacturing Real Plant and Equipment Outlays,1948 to 1973 525. Disposition of Disposable Personal Income, 1960-73 546. Unemployment Rates for Selected Groups, Selected Years,1956-73 5917
Page 1: ECONOMICTRANSMITTEDTO THE CONGRESSF
Page 5: CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: of the inflation rate of 1973, and
Page 13: or permit incentives—including hi
Page 16 and 17: people of an easy time. Like our pa
Page 19: THE PRESIDENT:LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
Page 24 and 25: Page7. Unemployment Rates by Sex an
Page 26 and 27: Page53. Maximum Percent Change in E
Page 28 and 29: We have specific problems, too, asi
Page 30 and 31: This curtailment of supply does, of
Page 32 and 33: consumption we would not have chose
Page 34 and 35: outside the food and fuel sectors a
Page 36 and 37: about $14 billion from deficit to s
Page 38 and 39: 8 percent, at annual rates. Continu
Page 40 and 41: A third method, which seems to have
Page 42 and 43: DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-COST ENERGY FOR
Page 44 and 45: would otherwise have been invested
Page 46 and 47: TRANSPORTATION REFORMLast year the
Page 48 and 49: constraints. Restrictions on entry
Page 50 and 51: In early 1974 the Commerce Departme
Page 52 and 53: Consumer SpendingConsumer expenditu
Page 54 and 55: Chart 1Changes in GNP, Real GNP, GN
Page 56 and 57: During the fourth quarter the downt
Page 58 and 59: A number of points may be noted abo
Page 60 and 61: income do not appear to have played
Page 62 and 63: Chart 2Changes in Real GNPPERCENTUN
Page 64 and 65: of essentially declining participat
Page 66 and 67: The unemployment rate for adult mal
Page 68 and 69: from job losers, the remainder of t
Page 70 and 71: to maintain a somewhat larger work
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Chart 3Changes in Selected Price Me
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TABLE 12.—Changes in selected pri
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production workers, and it is sensi
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the profits that companies report a
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Two measures of changes in income t
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About $8 billion of the growth in e
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effect of covered wage and employme
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Since these apparent stabilization
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MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKE
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lation requiring ceilings on all CD
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TABLE 19.—Offerings of new securi
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CHAPTER 3Inflation Control Under th
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(A more detailed presentation of th
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ate of advance in grocery store foo
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to the economy but also in the sens
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were imposed, limiting prices to th
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spurring of domestic inflation by e
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was more than twice as high in 1973
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wage increases in many cases, const
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TABLE 26.—Behavior of items in co
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Chart 6Changes in RelatedWholesale
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and natural gas. A complex set of f
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CHAPTER 4Energy and AgricultureFOR
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al gas have contributed to the low
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TABLE 30*—Wholesale prices, all i
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tion sector, which in 1972 accounte
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United States on oil imports, OPEC
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of old oil and prices of imported a
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LONG-TERM PROSPECTSThe price of imp
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important that the higher costs be
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improving the environment. The fund
Page 134 and 135:
pollutants into the atmosphere will
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of research and rapid mechanization
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lion in fiscal 1972. Actually the a
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a minimum income. Unless prices fal
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The Administration supports the exa
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and estimates of some of these effe
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Since families typically pool their
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ability were not perfectly correlat
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Farm wages and farm income received
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TABLE 37.—Average usual weekly ea
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Chart 9Real Incomes for Men in Diff
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ecause they have acquired more expe
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whose owners or white workers have
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Several factors can be mentioned to
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y social pressures, however, which
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TABLE 42.—Relation of wage and sa
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ferences in their mix of occupation
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for public housing may be valued by
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8 to 20 percent for black females.
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sufficiently high to cover the addi
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TABLE 45.—Federal Government tran
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given to the problems of poverty du
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TABLE 47.—Trends in the employmen
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enefit increases greater than the i
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(Table 45). Medicare is chiefly des
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Public assistance is specifically d
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Then, subtracting equation (4) from
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policies, and the tensions among co
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In the fourth quarter the dollar ro
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which include trade, grants and oth
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tarily by foreign central banks, ev
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ply of oil, and by domestic price c
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in the United States. In view of th
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TABLE 52.—U.S. balances on intern
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esult from changes in market value
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TABLE 54.—Major changes in capita
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attempt was made to agree on a code
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The official price of gold was rais
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system, these demand changes were a
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What Pressures Should Be Exerted on
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The composition of reserves among d
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prices of approximately the same or
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tained, they would probably be felt
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Reducing Nontariff BarriersIn order
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Structural problems. Agreements on
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arrangements which are designed to
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capital and the means of putting th
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Canada and four smaller countries u
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currencies have appreciated relativ
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Effective Changes in Other Currenci
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Activities of the Advisory Committe
Page 237:
Appendix BREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
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Report to the President on the Acti
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govern the exploitation of the reso
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Manpower and Social Affairs Committ
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Junior Staff EconomistsJames S. Fac
Page 249:
Appendix CSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY:Pa
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE C-2.—Gross national product
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TABLE C-3.—Implicit price deflato
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Page 263 and 264:
Page 265 and 266:
TABLE C—8.—Gross national produ
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TABLE C-10.—Gross national produc
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TABLE C-12.—Personal consumption
Page 271 and 272:
TABLE C-14.—Relation of gross nat
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TABLE C—16.—Relation of nationa
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TABLE C-18.— Total and per capita
Page 277 and 278:
TABLE C-19.—Sources of personal i
Page 279 and 280:
TABLE C-21.—Saving by individuals
Page 281 and 282:
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, ANDP
Page 283 and 284:
TABLE C-24.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 285 and 286:
TABLE C-26.— Selected unemploymen
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TABLE C—28.—Unemployment insura
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TABLE C-29.—Wage and salary worke
Page 291 and 292:
TABLE C-31.—.•Average weekly ea
Page 293 and 294:
TABLE C-33.—Changes in output per
Page 295 and 296:
TABLE C—35.—Industrial producti
Page 297 and 298:
TABLE C-37.—Capacity utilization
Page 299 and 300:
TABLE C—38.—New construction ac
Page 301 and 302:
TABLE C-39.—New housing starts an
Page 303 and 304:
TABLE C-41.—Sales and inventories
Page 305 and 306:
TABLE C-43.—Manvjacturers* new an
Page 307 and 308:
TABLE O45.—Consumer price indexes
Page 309 and 310:
TABLE C—47.—Consumer price inde
Page 311 and 312:
TABLE C~49.—Wholesale price index
Page 313 and 314:
TABLE C-50.—Wholesale price index
Page 315 and 316:
194819491950.,1951195219531954Yearo
Page 317 and 318:
TABLE C-53.—Commercial bank loans
Page 319 and 320:
TABLE G-54.—Total funds raised in
Page 321 and 322:
TABLE C-56.—Federal Reserve Bank
Page 323 and 324:
TABLE C-58.—Bond yields and inter
Page 325 and 326:
TABLE C-59.—Short- and intermedia
Page 327 and 328:
TABLE C-61.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 329 and 330:
TABLE C-63.—Net public and privat
Page 331 and 332:
TABLE C-65.—Federal budget receip
Page 333 and 334:
TABLE C-66.—Relation of the Feder
Page 335 and 336:
TABLE C-68.—Receipts and expendit
Page 337 and 338:
TABLE C-10.—State and local gover
Page 339 and 340:
TABLE C-72.—Estimated ownership o
Page 341 and 342:
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 343 and 344:
TABLE C-76.—Relation of profits a
Page 345 and 346:
TABLE C-77.—Sources and uses of f
Page 347 and 348:
TABLE C-79.—State and municipal a
Page 349 and 350:
TABLE C-81.—Business formation an
Page 351 and 352:
Year1929...1933...1939...1940...194
Page 353 and 354:
TABLE C-85.—Indexes of prices rec
Page 355 and 356:
TABLE G-87.—Comparative balance s
Page 357 and 358:
TABLE G-88.— U.S. balance of paym
Page 359 and 360:
TABLE C-90.— U.S. merchandise exp
Page 361 and 362:
TABLE C-92.—International reserve
Page 363 and 364:
TABLE G-94.—International investm
Page 365:
TABLE C-96.—Consumer price indexe
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ECONOMIC

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