AGRICULTURE

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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AFOLU agriculture, forestry and other land use AgMIP Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project ASAP Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme BCR benefit-cost ratio C carbon CFU ODI Climate Fund Update CH 4 methane CO 2 carbon dioxide COP UNFCCC Conference of the Parties CRS OECD Creditor Reporting System CSA climate-smart agriculture GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas Gt gigatonne (billion tonnes) GtC Gt of carbon GtCO 2 -eq Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent ha hectare IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least developed country LULUCF land use, and land-use change and forestry N nitrogen N 2 O nitrous oxide NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAP National Adaptation Plans NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action NDC Nationally Determined Contributions NPV net present value ODI Overseas Development Institute OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development RCP Representative Concentration Pathway REDD Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation SOC soil organic carbon SSP Shared Socio-economic Pathway SME small and medium enterprises t tonne UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WTO World Trade Organization | x |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE WORLD FACES AN UNPRECEDENTED DOUBLE CHALLENGE: TO ERADICATE HUNGER AND POVERTY AND TO STABILIZE THE GLOBAL CLIMATE BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE In adopting the goals of the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the international community took responsibility for building a sustainable future. But meeting the goals of eradicating hunger and poverty by 2030, while addressing the threat of climate change, will require a profound transformation of food and agriculture systems worldwide. Achieving the transformation to sustainable agriculture is a major challenge. Changes will need to be made in a way that does not jeopardize the capacity of the agriculture sectors – crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry – to meet the world’s food needs. Global food demand in 2050 is projected to increase by at least 60 percent above 2006 levels, driven by population and income growth, as well as rapid urbanization. In the coming decades, population increases will be concentrated in regions with the highest prevalence of undernourishment and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. At the same time, efforts by the agriculture sectors to contribute to a carbon-neutral world are leading to competing demands on water and land used to produce food and energy, and to forest conservation initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions but limit land available for crop and livestock production. The transformation will also need to involve millions of food producers in adapting to climate change impacts, which are already being felt in the agricultural sectors and especially so in tropical regions, which are home to most of the poor and food insecure. It must also reverse the widespread degradation of agriculture’s natural resource base – from soil to forests to fisheries – which threatens the very sustainability of food production. A broad-based transformation of food and agriculture systems is needed, therefore, to ensure global food security, provide economic and social opportunities for all, protect the ecosystem services on which agriculture depends, and build resilience to climate change. Without adaptation to climate change, it will not be possible to achieve food security for all and eradicate hunger, malnutrition and poverty. BECAUSE ADVERSE IMPACTS WILL WORSEN WITH TIME, A GLOBAL TRANSFORMATION TO SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND <strong>AGRICULTURE</strong> MUST BEGIN NOW The effects of climate change on agricultural production and livelihoods are expected to intensify over time, and to vary across countries and regions. Beyond 2030, the negative impacts of climate change on the productivity of crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry will become increasingly severe in all regions. Productivity declines would have serious implications for food security. Food supply shortfalls would lead to major increases in food prices, while increased climate variability would accentuate price volatility. Since the areas most affected would be those with already high rates of hunger and poverty, food price increases would directly affect millions of low-income people. Among the most vulnerable will be those who depend on agriculture for their livelihood and income, particularly smallholder producers in developing countries. While climate change is but one driver of poverty and food insecurity, its impacts are expected to be substantial. In the absence of climate change, and with continuing economic progress, most regions are projected to see a decline in the number of people at risk of hunger by 2050. With climate change, however, the population living in poverty could increase by between 35 and 122 million by | xi |
Page 1 and 2: 2016 THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULT
Page 3 and 4: ISSN 0081-4539 2016 THE STATE OF FO
Page 5 and 6: NOTES BORIA VOLOREIUM, SIT AUT QUIS
Page 7 and 8: FOREWORD Following last year’s hi
Page 9 and 10: productivity in regions where peopl
Page 11: Statistical annex The annex was pre
Page 15 and 16: productivity improvements. However,
Page 17 and 18: emissions of greenhouse gases. The
Page 19: flows. This approach would allow fa
Page 22 and 23: NAROK, KENYA Maasai pastoralists gr
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER 1 HUNGER, POVERTY AND CLIMA
Page 32 and 33: TABLE 1 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON SELECTED
Page 37 and 38: CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND
Page 39 and 40: KEY MESSAGES 1 UNTIL ABOUT 2030, GL
Page 41 and 42: BOX 5 SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMP
Page 43 and 44: THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2
Page 45 and 46: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NEAR EAST AND NO
Page 47 and 48: FIGURE 5 PROJECTED CHANGES IN CROP
Page 51 and 52: BOX 7 PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE: RC
Page 53 and 54: TABLE 3 NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN
Page 57 and 58: FIGURE 10 FOOD INSECURITY AND CLIMA
Page 59 and 60: TABLE 5 EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF M
Page 61: TABLE 6 THREE MAIN SOURCES OF AGRIC
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BYUMBA, RWANDA A tea plantation in
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CHAPTER 3 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANG
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BOX 14 FACTORS THAT HINDER ADAPTIVE
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CHAPTER 4 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SYST
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KEY MESSAGES 1 THE AGRICULTURE SECT
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THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2
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TABLE 11 POTENTIAL FOR N 2 O MITIGA
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BOX 18 METHANE ABATEMENT IN LIVESTO
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FIGURE 15 ECONOMIC MITIGATION POTEN
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RUSUMO, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
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CHAPTER 5 THE WAY FORWARD: REALIGNI
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BOX 21 THE AGRICULTURE SECTORS AND
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CHAPTER 6 FINANCING THE WAY FORWARD
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KEY MESSAGES 1 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC
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BOX 25 DEDICATED CLIMATE FUNDS AND
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BOX 26 TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY AND R
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BOX 27 INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE I
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COVERAGE OF INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CL
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STATISTICAL ANNEX NOTES ON THE ANNE
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Emissions from cu
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TABLE A.1 (CONTINUED) REFERENCE GEO
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TABLE A.2 NET EMISSIONS AND REMOVAL
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) EMISSIONS FRO
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) EMISSIONS FRO
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) Svalbard and
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TABLE A.3 (CONTINUED) BURNING CROP
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REFERENCES CHAPTER 1 Alexandratos,
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REFERENCES Antle, J.M. & Crissman,
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REFERENCES Lancelot, R., de La Rocq
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REFERENCES Seo, N. & Mendelsohn, R.
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REFERENCES Burney J.A., Davis S.J.
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REFERENCES Holmes, R. & Jones, N. 2
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REFERENCES Rasmussen, L. V., Mertz,
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REFERENCES EC (European Commission)
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REFERENCES Mottet, A., Henderson, B
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REFERENCES Arslan, A., McCarthy, N.
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REFERENCES Government of Thailand.
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REFERENCES Moriondo, M., Bindi, M.,
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SPECIAL CHAPTERS OF THE STATE OF FO
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2016 THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULT
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