AGRICULTURE

CHAPTER 2
CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE
AND FOOD SECURITY:
A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE CONNECTIONS
This chapter examines in detail the linkages
between climate change, agriculture and food
security. It discusses the biophysical impacts of
climate change on the agriculture sectors and
how they translate into socio-economic
impacts with consequences for food security
and nutrition. It also reviews how greenhouse
gas emissions and removals from the
agriculture sectors contribute to climate
change. The implication is that the agriculture
sectors need to both adapt to climate change
by building resilience and contribute to climate
change mitigation. •
CASCADING
IMPACTS FROM
CLIMATE TO PEOPLE
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report confirms
the main findings of its previous reports on the
evolution of the world’s climate, the expected
changes – such as increases in temperature,
rainfall variability and extreme weather events –
and the main biophysical impacts of global
warming, such as sea-level rise, ocean
acidification, reductions in the extent of
glaciers, the degradation of ecosystems,
increased risks of fires and insect pest upsurges.
As well as providing a better understanding of
potential changes in precipitation, the report
uses improvements in modelling and data
collection to make better medium-term
projections. Accordingly, the cascading impacts
of climate change can now be attributed along
chains of evidence from physical climate
through to intermediate systems and then to
people (Kirtman et al., 2014).
Climate change profoundly affects the
conditions under which agricultural activities
are conducted. In every region of the world,
plants, animals and ecosystems have adapted to
prevailing climatic conditions. As those
conditions change, they will be affected in ways
that are difficult to predict precisely. Several
studies document the biophysical impacts of the
expected changes specifically on
agroecosystems (Box 5). The impacts range from
yield reductions and increased yield variability
to displacement of crops and the loss of
agrobiodiversity and ecosystem services. Most,
but not all, of the impacts of climate change on
agriculture are expected to be negative. All the
agriculture sectors – crops, livestock, fisheries
and forestry – will be affected in different ways.
Climate change already affects the agriculture
sectors in many parts of the world, and its
impacts will be amplified in the years and
decades ahead. A large body of evidence points
to a prevalence of negative outcomes, with many
agricultural systems becoming less productive
and some plant and animal species
disappearing. Those changes will have direct
effects on agricultural production, which will
have economic and social consequences and
finally impacts on food security (Figure 3). The
impacts will be transmitted through different
channels and will affect food security in all four
of its dimensions: access, availability, utilization
and stability. At each stage of the transmission
chain, the severity of impact will be determined
by both the shock itself and by the vulnerability
of the system or population group under stress
(FAO, 2016a). •
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