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TABLE 1 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON SELECTED CROP YIELDS, GLOBALLY AND IN TROPICAL AREAS, UNDER WARMING OF 1.5 °C AND 2 °C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS OVER THE 21ST CENTURY Crop Region Increase over pre-industrial temperatures (percent) 1.5 °C 2.0 Wheat Maize Soybean Rice Global 2 (–6 to +17) 0 (–8 to +21) Tropical –9 (–25 to +12) –16 (–42 to +14) Global –1 (–26 to +8) –6 (–38 to +2) Tropical –3 (–16 to +2) –6 (–19 to +2) Global 7 (–3 to +28) 1 (–12 to +34) Tropical 6 (–3 to +23) 7 (–5 to +27) Global 7 (–17 to +24) 7 (–14 to +27) Tropical 6 (0 to +20) 6 (0 to +24) Note: The figures in parentheses indicate a likely (66 percent) confidence interval. SOURCE: Adapted from Schleusner et al. (2016), Figure 15. BOX 3 AGRICULTURE IS PROMINENT IN GUIDES TO COUNTRY-LEVEL ACTION Adaptation and mitigation objectives in agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry figure prominently in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which, under the Paris Agreement of December 2015, will guide country-level action on climate change in the coming years. They include not only targets, but also concrete strategies for addressing the causes of climate change and responding to its consequences. An FAO analysis of the INDCs shows that, in all regions, agriculture will play a pivotal role in accomplishing the goals related to climate change by 2030. Of the 188 countries that submitted INDCs, more than 90 percent included agriculture as a sector considered for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. The analysis also shows that the agriculture sectors are expected to provide the greatest number of opportunities for adaptationmitigation synergies, as well as socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits. Around one third of all countries acknowledge (and in some cases prioritize) actions that would create synergies between mitigation and adaptation in agriculture. Almost 30 percent of countries mention social, economic and environmental co-benefits, particularly rural development and health, poverty reduction and job creation, and the conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. With regard to gender equality, agriculture is highlighted as a sector which – more than any other – provides diverse opportunities for empowering women as well as reducing their vulnerability to climate change. SOURCE: FAO, 2016. | 12 |
THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2016 » Decisions taken today will determine the kind of world we will live in 15 years from now, and beyond. The agriculture sectors must respond, therefore, by building resilience to the impacts of climate change, while contributing to the extent possible to mitigation efforts. Responses must be designed in line with the national development objectives and priorities of different countries, and must not in themselves jeopardize efforts to reduce food insecurity. In this context, it is important to note that, unlike other economic sectors where adaptation and mitigation actions are generally independent of each other, in the agriculture sectors there are synergies – but also a need to accept trade-offs – among the objectives of food security, adaptation and mitigation. • THE SPECIAL ROLE AND RESPONSIBILITY OF AGRICULTURE An agricultural response to climate change Implementing an effective, sustained response to climate change in agriculture – in terms of both adaptation and mitigation – will be far more difficult than in most, if not all, other sectors, owing to its dependence on biophysical processes and the enormous range of agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions. A further complicating factor is the large number of actors involved – hundreds of millions of farmers, fisherfolk and forest-dependent populations, many of whom are poorly linked to markets, information and public services. This diversity calls for different and often extremely context-specific solutions. The agriculture sectors are likely, therefore, to be slower than others in adjusting, and a significant degree of inertia in the system is to be expected. This only adds to the urgency of taking action now. The vulnerability of agriculture to climate change has not always received the attention it deserves. Assessments of climate change impacts, using mainly global economic models, have tended to overlook the impacts on agriculture because of its declining contribution, globally, to gross domestic product (GDP). Today, the importance of an agriculture response to climate change is widely recognized. This awareness is reflected clearly in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by countries in the lead-up to the 21st Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Paris in 2015 (Box 3). The INDCs are discussed in more detail in Chapter 5. There is also increasing recognition that agriculture has a special role to play in climate change mitigation. Scenarios indicate that limiting the global temperature increase to 2 °C can only be achieved by reducing GHG emissions from energy, industry and transport to zero, and limiting emissions from agriculture, land use and land-use change. The agriculture sectors can contribute to mitigation, first, by reducing their emission intensity (or the quantity of emissions per unit of product), and avoiding the further loss of carbon stored principally in forests and soil. This effort can be complemented by actions aimed at reducing food losses and waste, and changing food consumption patterns. In addition, the agriculture sectors have a unique potential to act as carbon sinks, which capture carbon dioxide and sequester carbon in biomass and soils, through forestry and land restoration (see Chapter 4). A key challenge in framing climate change responses is to ensure that they do not jeopardize food security or progress in poverty reduction, particularly in countries with persistent, high levels of hunger and poverty. This is recognized in the preamble to the UNFCCC, which affirms that “responses to climate change should be coordinated with social and economic development in an integrated manner with a view to avoiding adverse impacts on the latter, taking into full account the legitimate priority needs of developing countries for the achievement of sustained economic growth and the eradication of poverty” (UNFCCC, 1992). Similarly, the | 13 |
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Page 5 and 6: NOTES BORIA VOLOREIUM, SIT AUT QUIS
Page 7 and 8: FOREWORD Following last year’s hi
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CHAPTER 3 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANG
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BOX 14 FACTORS THAT HINDER ADAPTIVE
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CHAPTER 3 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANG
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CHAPTER 4 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SYST
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KEY MESSAGES 1 THE AGRICULTURE SECT
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THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2
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TABLE 11 POTENTIAL FOR N 2 O MITIGA
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BOX 18 METHANE ABATEMENT IN LIVESTO
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FIGURE 15 ECONOMIC MITIGATION POTEN
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RUSUMO, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
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CHAPTER 5 THE WAY FORWARD: REALIGNI
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BOX 21 THE AGRICULTURE SECTORS AND
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CHAPTER 6 FINANCING THE WAY FORWARD
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KEY MESSAGES 1 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC
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BOX 25 DEDICATED CLIMATE FUNDS AND
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BOX 26 TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY AND R
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BOX 27 INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE I
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COVERAGE OF INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CL
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STATISTICAL ANNEX NOTES ON THE ANNE
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Emissions from cu
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TABLE A.1 (CONTINUED) REFERENCE GEO
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TABLE A.2 NET EMISSIONS AND REMOVAL
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) EMISSIONS FRO
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) EMISSIONS FRO
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TABLE A.2 (CONTINUED) Svalbard and
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TABLE A.3 (CONTINUED) BURNING CROP
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REFERENCES CHAPTER 1 Alexandratos,
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REFERENCES Antle, J.M. & Crissman,
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REFERENCES Lancelot, R., de La Rocq
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REFERENCES Seo, N. & Mendelsohn, R.
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REFERENCES Burney J.A., Davis S.J.
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REFERENCES Holmes, R. & Jones, N. 2
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REFERENCES Rasmussen, L. V., Mertz,
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REFERENCES EC (European Commission)
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REFERENCES Mottet, A., Henderson, B
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REFERENCES Arslan, A., McCarthy, N.
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REFERENCES Government of Thailand.
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REFERENCES Moriondo, M., Bindi, M.,
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SPECIAL CHAPTERS OF THE STATE OF FO
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2016 THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULT
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