Permafrost

Impact of Frozen Ground Change on Streamflow Hydrology over the
Siberian Lena basin
Daqing Yang 1 ,Tingjun Zhang 2 ,Baozhong Liu 3 ,Baisheng Ye 4
(1. Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Ak 99775-5860, USA,Email:
ffdy@uaf.edu; 2.National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University of Colorado Boulder, CO
80309-0449, USA, Email: tzhang@nsidc.org; 3.Water and Environmental ResearchCenter ,University of
Alaska Fairbanks ,Fairbanks, Ak 99775-5860, USA; 4.Cold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering
Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China )
Abstract: Climate, permafrost, and hydrology are the dynamic components of the arctic system.
They closely interact in many ways. Our current knowledge of permafrost effects on arctic
hydrologic changes is incomplete, and this limits our capability to understand the long-term
changes observed in the arctic hydrologic system. Recently we have integrated and analyzed
long-term climate, permafrost and hydrology data over the Lena basin in Siberia. This
presentation will review the preliminary results. It will define basin and sub-basin climate,
permafrost, and hydrology regimes, variations and trends, with an emphasis on frozen ground
changes over the upper Lena basin and quantitatively assess their impacts on basin streamflow
characteristics. Special focus will be placed on examining the changes in streamflow seasonal
cycle due to changes in seasonally frozen ground. Our ongoing and future efforts will use
physically based permafrost and hydrology models to examine the linkage between climate,
frozen ground, and streamflow changes over selected sub-basins with sufficient input and
validation data. We will apply hydrochemistry models to determine subsurface flow component
and its change over space and time. These analyses will allow us quantify the linkage and
interaction between the arctic hydrological regime and the dynamics of permafrost and
freeze-thaw cycle, and advance our understanding of arctic hydrological system and its change
related with climate and permafrost variations. The result of this study will advance our
understanding of the functions, interactions, and changes in the Arctic system and benefit
national and international programs, such as the IPY and WCRP CLIC.
Key words: Impact, Frozen Ground Change, Streamflow Hydrology
Arctic hydrological feedbacks associated with a global climate model
projection of severe degradation of near-surface permafrost
David M. Lawrence 1 and Andrew G. Slater 2
(1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
2.National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO, USA)
Abstract: The representation of near-surface permafrost and projections of future near-surface
permafrost under climate change as well as its relationship with changes to Arctic hydrology
are examined in a fully coupled climate model, the Community Climate System Model version
3 (CCSM3). Present-day and future near-surface permafrost distributions are analyzed based
on data from five member ensembles of CCSM3 integrations, conducted at NCAR in support of
145