Permafrost

Applying the Adaptive Cycle to Modelling Environmental and
Anthropogenic Cryospheric Changes and Linking Problems of Human
Adaptation and Mitigation
N.C. Doubleday
(Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1S
5B6 Nancy_Doubleday@carleton.ca / Tel. 613-520-2600x8370 Fax: + 1- 613-520-4301; Canadian
Member, International Geographical Union Commission for Cold Region Environments)
Abstract: The earth’s cold regions are experiencing accelerated rates of change, and the
associated effects on land forms and land use raise many concerns for the health and well-being
of those who live in cold regions, and also for sustainability for those living elsewhere (Gude et
al., 2005). Interconnectivity and complexity characterise social-environmental systems.
Although the changes being observed may be related to the physical environment and to climate
in the first instance, contingent or related changes such as shifts in land use may be less
obvious. However changes in land use also have consequences for key factors influencing
processes of environmental change for example, in changes in albedo. The sphere of influence
of the cold regions extends far beyond its geographical limits. There are many examples of
changes with impacts at a global scale, such as the possibility of an ice-free shipping route
across the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, while north ward shifts in frost-free season length may be
very useful to farmers in certain regions, but if the longer frost-free season is also accompanied
by drought, from an agricultural perspective one limiting factor has simply been replaced by
another. If warming temperatures also lead to increases in sea-level rise, many ocean island
states face grave danger. Clearly these are potentially massive and complex problems extending
beyond the cold regions.
The scientific issues related to defining both the mechanisms and possible consequences of
cryospheric change are subjects of debate but there is general agreement among scientific
experts in many fields that more sophisticated and inclusive models for conceptualising change
in complex systems are needed. Further it is recognised that there is a need to find methods to
describe both anthropogenic factors and natural environments as interconnected systems. Such
methods must also be able to address very practical problems of integrating knowledge from
many different scientific fields.
Recognising that cryospheric change is likely to demand a long-term human response
through environmental management based on adaptation as well as on mitigation means that it
is important to develop conceptual models capable of addressing complexity as well as
allowing for uncertainty. Using a systems approach that emphasises the linking of human and
natural systems in an adaptive management model (Gunderson and Holling, 2002), and building
on previous work (Doubleday 2005), this paper extends the model of the adaptive cycle as
understood in the natural and social sciences, to include adaptation to and mitigation of
environmental change in cold regions. Implicit in this approach is the understanding that human
societies and their future health and well-being will be determined by many complex
environmental, social and economic factors, and that in some cases, positive forces for
adaptation or mitigation at one scale may produce negative or positive feedbacks at other
scales.
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