PUTIN’S RESET

that they knew the U.S. would not back up. Senior Bush officials also understood
that as bad as Russia’s invasion of Georgia was, Washington needed to maintain a
working relationship with Moscow.
This was not the case for the Obama administration. President Obama and
Secretary Kerry mistakenly thought they could threaten and use sanctions to force
Putin to reverse the 2014 Ukraine intervention and had no follow-up plan if Putin
rejected their ultimatums. They had no understanding of the damage that could be
done to American credibility – with Russia and around the world – if Putin
disregarded their ultimatums as empty rhetoric. This lack of foresight contributed to
Putin’s disregard for the Obama administration and encouraged Russia to engage in
more destabilizing and belligerent behavior in the belief that there would be no
serious response from the United States.
Putin ignored U.S. ultimatums and sanctions over his meddling in Ukraine
because he correctly predicted there was no chance the United States would send
troops or arms to Ukraine. Putin knew the U.S. and its European allies would do
nothing to defend Ukraine other than make empty threats and impose economic
sanctions which he planned to ignore.
For these reasons, Russia never ended its meddling in Ukraine and the
violence remained at a high level in 2014 and 2015.
Putin also was not cowed by U.S. demands to withdraw from Ukraine
because he knew President Obama needed Russia’s support on other international
issues that Mr. Obama considered more important.
HOW THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL AFFECTED U.S./RUSSIA
RELATIONS
While the Obama administration was sanctioning Russia and issuing
ultimatums over its intervention in Ukraine, it was simultaneously seeking Russia’s
support for President Obama’s most important foreign policy priority: a nuclear
agreement with Iran. This agreement, which was announced in July 2015, was
initially crafted in bilateral talks between the United States and Iran, and through P-
5+1 talks (the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and
Germany) with Iran in 2012 and 2013. However, the formal negotiations in 2014
and 2015 required close U.S. coordination with Russian diplomats.
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