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Russian reliance on nuclear forces both for deterrence and escalation control is likely<br />
to increase over time, despite the desire to create a conventional deterrent based on<br />
advanced weapons and a new force structure. One of the primary reasons for this is<br />
Russia’s demographic disaster which makes even filling the ranks of the current,<br />
smaller force. Another reason is Russia’s long-term budgetary challenges. Nuclear<br />
weapons are cheaper than an effective advanced conventional deterrent and in the case<br />
of Russia, much easier to build and maintain.<br />
The Kremlin knows it has neither the time nor the resources to reconstruct a<br />
great power military. It must act in the near term to create the conditions that will, in<br />
effect, insulate Russia from the forces of global economic and political change. The<br />
West will have to figure out how to help those living in Russia’s neighborhood<br />
withstand the kind of tactics and forces Moscow employed in Crimea and is currently<br />
employing in Eastern Ukraine, pose a credible counter to Russian conventional forces<br />
and deter the threats posed by that country’s long-range conventional and nuclear<br />
weapons.<br />
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