PUTIN’S RESET

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In 2014, Russia signed an agreement with Iran to build eight nuclear reactors. This deal raised concerns in the West since the Iran nuclear talks were still underway and their outcome was uncertain. In 2007, Iran signed a contract with Russia to buy S-300 surface-to-air missiles, one of the most advanced systems of its type. This contract caused tension between the two countries because Moscow refused to deliver the missiles due to pressure by the Bush and Obama administrations as well as Iran’s failure to pay. Russia agreed to go forward with the S-300 deal in April 2015 after the announcement of an outline of the Iran nuclear deal. It began delivery of the missiles in April 2016. Iran is using the S-300s to protect its Fordow uranium enrichment site from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Why did Russia proceed with the S-300 deal despite the nuclear agreement which should have negated Iran’s need for these missiles? Probably because Russia hoped to take advantage of what many believed would be significant new trade opportunities with Iran after UN, U.S. and EU sanction were lifted in the wake of the nuclear agreement. Moscow didn’t care that Iran’s continued interest in the S-300s indicated it could withdraw from the nuclear agreement in the near future because Russia only went along with the nuclear talks to advance its interests (especially trade deals with Iran) and to work with Tehran to undermine the United States. Russian officials probably share the view of many U.S. experts that although President Obama considers the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran one of his most important achievements, the deal is actually a very weak agreement that does not stop Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and will allow Iran to develop an industrial-scale nuclear weapons program in 10 to 15 years. 9 IRAN DEAL EMBOLDENS RUSSIA IN SYRIA Russia’s meddling in the Syrian crisis is a direct result of the Iran nuclear talks, the Obama administration’s policy of retreat in the Middle East, and an overall perception of U.S. weakness under the Obama administration. Syria has long been a close ally and client state of the Soviet Union and Russia. Syria is strategically important to Russia because of the Russian naval facility in Tartus, Syria, Russia’s only naval facility in the Mediterranean and the only remaining military facility outside the former Soviet Union. The Arab Spring uprising of 2011 greatly concerned Russian leaders because it threatened to replace Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – who like his father and predecessor President Hafez al-Assad had 18
close relations with Moscow – with a new government run by Assad’s political opponents who might terminate that relationship. Although the Russian government has participated in various peace initiatives since 2011 to resolve the Syrian civil war, it has staunchly supported President Assad and provided him with a steady flow of military assistance, including artillery and tanks. A key development in the Syria story occurred in August 2013 when Syria violated a “red line” that President Obama declared a year earlier in which he said the United States would use military force if Syria used chemical weapons against his own people. 10 By early September 2013, pressure was growing on President Obama to take military action against the Assad regime for violating his red line on chemical weapons use. At the same time, Obama’s bid to win congressional support for an attack on Syria appeared to be on the verge of a major defeat. Obama didn’t want to take action without a congressional buy-in. Congress did not trust Obama to act. The situation dramatically shifted on September 9 when Secretary of John Kerry made an offhand comment at a press conference in London that Assad could avoid a U.S. assault by giving up "every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week." Russia immediately jumped on Kerry’s statement when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow would urge Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control. The Assad government quickly endorsed the Russian proposal. Although I doubt President Obama would ever have approved a U.S. attack on Syria, U.S. and European forces were preparing an attack. The United States sent five Navy destroyers to the eastern Mediterranean. The UK was planning to join a possible attack on Syria from its airbases in Cyprus and from submarine-based missiles. The French government planned to join an attack on Syria but said little about its plans. French fighters might have attacked Syria from bases in the UAE. Realizing that an attack against Syria might be imminent, Russia seized on Kerry’s comment not just to block an attack but to avoid a diplomatic agreement that would punish the Assad regime for chemical weapons use and impose new steps to revolve the Syrian conflict. While this outcome was praised by most observers at the time (especially Obama officials since it got them out of a policy quandary), it significantly eased international pressure on Assad over his bloody campaign against the Syrian rebels. 19
Page 1 and 2: PUTIN’S RESET The Bear is Back an
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents FOREWORD 5 BY FRA
Page 5 and 6: Foreword By Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. A
Page 7 and 8: strategic and tactical nuclear arse
Page 9 and 10: How Putin’s Aggression Has Been B
Page 11 and 12: objectives stem not just from Putin
Page 13 and 14: Korea and Iran and a slew apologies
Page 15 and 16: Break.” 6 Pifer argued it is unfa
Page 17: The Obama administration had no cho
Page 21 and 22: Like similar warnings by Obama offi
Page 23 and 24: International Criminal Court could
Page 25 and 26: Russia’s Goals and Objectives in
Page 27 and 28: disappearing. In this context, our
Page 29 and 30: Putin’s ruling “coalition,” a
Page 31 and 32: masquerades as the last bastion of
Page 33 and 34: In the Middle East, Primakov counte
Page 35 and 36: locations providing the greatest st
Page 37 and 38: Russian Nuclear Weapons, Strategic
Page 39 and 40: large theater exercises. 103 In Jan
Page 41 and 42: developing “low-yield tactical nu
Page 43 and 44: RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS In
Page 45 and 46: missiles, airborne threats includin
Page 47 and 48: Forces Command stated, “Moscow’
Page 49 and 50: deployed Russian cruise missile, th
Page 51 and 52: The following chart by Michaela Dod
Page 53 and 54: Russia’s New Military in the Serv
Page 55 and 56: The strategic implications of this
Page 57 and 58: its armed forces. The state armamen
Page 59 and 60: (ISR) and targeting and the rapid d
Page 61 and 62: EVOLVING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES AND C
Page 63 and 64: the kind of high intensity, fast-pa
Page 65 and 66: Russian Economic Warfare By Kevin F
Page 67 and 68: What would constitute an external e
Page 69 and 70:
etween Russia and China have never
Page 71 and 72:
Martyn Davies, chief executive offi
Page 73 and 74:
as a roadmap to expand local curren
Page 75 and 76:
Russia would likewise fund efforts
Page 77 and 78:
methods and motivations of Russia-d
Page 79 and 80:
The Unsolved Mystery Behind the Act
Page 81 and 82:
organized a “public commission”
Page 83 and 84:
organized crime. After this meeting
Page 85 and 86:
adherents of the radical current of
Page 87 and 88:
Russia’s New Information War: Wha
Page 89 and 90:
action or reaction. An extreme form
Page 91 and 92:
The most stubborn holdouts wound up
Page 93 and 94:
supported of a free press or, more
Page 95 and 96:
On a Washington evening that Novemb
Page 97 and 98:
Putin rewarded his unconventional i
Page 99 and 100:
conservatives (including the Drudge
Page 101 and 102:
frequency with which they are “li
Page 103 and 104:
ESPIONAGE-DRIVEN PROPAGANDA Effecti
Page 105 and 106:
addition to the SVR, or Moscow’s
Page 107 and 108:
The media outlets that Lesin had cr
Page 109 and 110:
This will condition people to be al
Page 111 and 112:
Black Sea Energy Deposits As a Prim
Page 113 and 114:
production climbed from 1 billion c
Page 115 and 116:
sabotage of drill rigs and other en
Page 117 and 118:
The Strange “Death” of Communis
Page 119 and 120:
displayed in a park not far from th
Page 121 and 122:
wrote about the discovery of Soviet
Page 123 and 124:
allegations of pervasive communist
Page 125 and 126:
Breedlove has also described the ex
Page 127 and 128:
the film. In fact, however, the FBI
Page 129 and 130:
About the Authors Stephen Blank is
Page 131 and 132:
Endnotes 1 Allison Quinn, “Vladim
Page 133 and 134:
22 Reid Standish, ‘Russia Is Usin
Page 135 and 136:
43 Vladislav Inozemtsev, “The Rat
Page 137 and 138:
71 Bruce Jones. “Russia searches
Page 139 and 140:
96 Mark B. Schneider, “The Nuclea
Page 141 and 142:
113 “Putin threatens to retarget
Page 143 and 144:
the-european-security-crisis-and-be
Page 145 and 146:
http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airch
Page 147 and 148:
139 “New RF-US agreement to repla
Page 149 and 150:
153 “Deputy Defense Minister: Rus
Page 151 and 152:
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx
Page 153 and 154:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres
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219 Dave Majumdar, “Can America C
Page 157 and 158:
246 “Russia’s secret weapon: cr
Page 159 and 160:
269 Lachlan Markay, “Matt Damon
Page 161 and 162:
292 Carol Matlack, “Losing Crimea
Page 163:
314 Benjamin B. Fischer, “Doubles
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PUTIN’S RESET

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