PUTIN’S RESET

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Wall Street Journal writer Jay Solomon told MSNBC in August 2016 about another factor that may have caused President Obama to not back up his red line on Syrian CW use and agree to the compromise proposed by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. 11 According to Solomon, Iran threatened with withdraw from the nuclear talks if the U.S. or its allies attacked the Assad regime. Based on other major U.S. concessions to Iran to negotiate the nuclear agreement and other experts 12 who share Solomon’s view, I believe he is probably right. Solomon’s claim also is plausible because the Obama administration was engaged in discussions about Iraq and Syria with Iran and Russia on the sidelines of the Iran nuclear talks. Moreover, according to the Wall Street Journal, in October 2014 President Obama sent a secret message to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei on how the United States and Iran might work together fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria if a nuclear agreement could be reached. 13 This letter was extraordinary since it reportedly said that U.S. military operations in Syria and Iraq are not aimed at weakening Iran or its allies, including the Assad regime in Syria. This gave a green light to Iran to expand its role in Iraq and Syria and probably further angered America’s allies about Obama’s Middle East policy. Iranian officials probably regarded U.S. offers during the nuclear talks to work with them on Iraq and Syria as an incredible windfall that would allow them to advance their goals of increasing Iranian power and influence in the region with the blessing, if not the assistance of, the United States. After the nuclear agreement was announced in July 2015, Russian and Iranian support to the Assad regime increased significantly. Iran began to send ground troops to Syria for the first time in October 2015 and stepped up its arms shipments. Russia stunned the world when it sent fighters to Syria and began conducting airstrikes on September 30, 2015. While Russia claims these airstrikes only target terrorists, many have attacked rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime – including some backed by the United States – and have provided air support for Iranian troops. In response to the Russian airstrikes, President Obama warned the Russian government: “An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won't work. And they will be there for a while if they don’t take a different course.” 20
Like similar warnings by Obama officials to Russia over the Ukraine crisis, Obama administration critics lambasted the president’s statement as feckless. The Russian government ignored it. Russia’s stepped-up military support to Syria in the fall of 2015 changed the direction of the Syrian civil war. Moscow rescued the Assad regime at a time when experts were predicting the regime could collapse or Assad could be forced to step down. Through their increased military support, Iran and Russia propped up the Assad government to such an extent that there is no longer a reasonable prospect of removing Assad from power. As a result, the Obama administration was forced to drop its previous demand that Assad step down as part of a peace settlement. Russia’s military support over the last year also helped the Assad regime recapture territory. This included airstrikes in support of the Syrian army’s assault on the rebel-held town of Aleppo which resulted in a major humanitarian crisis. As Mark Schneider explains later in this book, Russia also has deployed powerful S-300 and S-400 surface to air missiles that gives it the ability to defend the Assad regime from air attacks in almost all of Syria. By the fall of 2016, it was obvious that Russia’s increased military support to the Assad regime had boosted Russian influence and credibility in the Middle East at America’s expense. Russia did not get caught up in the quagmire President Obama had predicted. Instead, after successfully bolstering the Assad regime, Putin announced in April 2016 that Russia would withdraw the "main part" of its forces from Syria. Russian diplomats have participated in various multilateral and bilateral efforts to bring about peace agreements and cease-fires in the Syrian crisis. A “partial” ceasefire was agreed to in February 2016 that lasted until July. Attacks by and against terrorist groups were not barred by this cease-fire. The Assad regime repeatedly violated the cease-fire. Although Moscow complained about cease-fire violations by rebel groups, Russia also was accused of violating the agreement by conducting airstrikes against rebel groups it claimed were terrorists. The United States and Russia began a new round of diplomacy in August 2016 after the February 2016 agreement broke down. This resulted in a new ceasefire agreement that went into effect on September 12, 2016. This was an unusual agreement which held that if the cease-fire held for seven days, Russia and the United States would begin military coordination to target al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fateh Al- Sham, previously known as the al-Nusra Front. U.S. defense and intelligence officials 21
Page 1 and 2: PUTIN’S RESET The Bear is Back an
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents FOREWORD 5 BY FRA
Page 5 and 6: Foreword By Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. A
Page 7 and 8: strategic and tactical nuclear arse
Page 9 and 10: How Putin’s Aggression Has Been B
Page 11 and 12: objectives stem not just from Putin
Page 13 and 14: Korea and Iran and a slew apologies
Page 15 and 16: Break.” 6 Pifer argued it is unfa
Page 17 and 18: The Obama administration had no cho
Page 19: close relations with Moscow - with
Page 23 and 24: International Criminal Court could
Page 25 and 26: Russia’s Goals and Objectives in
Page 27 and 28: disappearing. In this context, our
Page 29 and 30: Putin’s ruling “coalition,” a
Page 31 and 32: masquerades as the last bastion of
Page 33 and 34: In the Middle East, Primakov counte
Page 35 and 36: locations providing the greatest st
Page 37 and 38: Russian Nuclear Weapons, Strategic
Page 39 and 40: large theater exercises. 103 In Jan
Page 41 and 42: developing “low-yield tactical nu
Page 43 and 44: RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS In
Page 45 and 46: missiles, airborne threats includin
Page 47 and 48: Forces Command stated, “Moscow’
Page 49 and 50: deployed Russian cruise missile, th
Page 51 and 52: The following chart by Michaela Dod
Page 53 and 54: Russia’s New Military in the Serv
Page 55 and 56: The strategic implications of this
Page 57 and 58: its armed forces. The state armamen
Page 59 and 60: (ISR) and targeting and the rapid d
Page 61 and 62: EVOLVING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES AND C
Page 63 and 64: the kind of high intensity, fast-pa
Page 65 and 66: Russian Economic Warfare By Kevin F
Page 67 and 68: What would constitute an external e
Page 69 and 70: etween Russia and China have never
Page 71 and 72:
Martyn Davies, chief executive offi
Page 73 and 74:
as a roadmap to expand local curren
Page 75 and 76:
Russia would likewise fund efforts
Page 77 and 78:
methods and motivations of Russia-d
Page 79 and 80:
The Unsolved Mystery Behind the Act
Page 81 and 82:
organized a “public commission”
Page 83 and 84:
organized crime. After this meeting
Page 85 and 86:
adherents of the radical current of
Page 87 and 88:
Russia’s New Information War: Wha
Page 89 and 90:
action or reaction. An extreme form
Page 91 and 92:
The most stubborn holdouts wound up
Page 93 and 94:
supported of a free press or, more
Page 95 and 96:
On a Washington evening that Novemb
Page 97 and 98:
Putin rewarded his unconventional i
Page 99 and 100:
conservatives (including the Drudge
Page 101 and 102:
frequency with which they are “li
Page 103 and 104:
ESPIONAGE-DRIVEN PROPAGANDA Effecti
Page 105 and 106:
addition to the SVR, or Moscow’s
Page 107 and 108:
The media outlets that Lesin had cr
Page 109 and 110:
This will condition people to be al
Page 111 and 112:
Black Sea Energy Deposits As a Prim
Page 113 and 114:
production climbed from 1 billion c
Page 115 and 116:
sabotage of drill rigs and other en
Page 117 and 118:
The Strange “Death” of Communis
Page 119 and 120:
displayed in a park not far from th
Page 121 and 122:
wrote about the discovery of Soviet
Page 123 and 124:
allegations of pervasive communist
Page 125 and 126:
Breedlove has also described the ex
Page 127 and 128:
the film. In fact, however, the FBI
Page 129 and 130:
About the Authors Stephen Blank is
Page 131 and 132:
Endnotes 1 Allison Quinn, “Vladim
Page 133 and 134:
22 Reid Standish, ‘Russia Is Usin
Page 135 and 136:
43 Vladislav Inozemtsev, “The Rat
Page 137 and 138:
71 Bruce Jones. “Russia searches
Page 139 and 140:
96 Mark B. Schneider, “The Nuclea
Page 141 and 142:
113 “Putin threatens to retarget
Page 143 and 144:
the-european-security-crisis-and-be
Page 145 and 146:
http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airch
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139 “New RF-US agreement to repla
Page 149 and 150:
153 “Deputy Defense Minister: Rus
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http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx
Page 153 and 154:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres
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219 Dave Majumdar, “Can America C
Page 157 and 158:
246 “Russia’s secret weapon: cr
Page 159 and 160:
269 Lachlan Markay, “Matt Damon
Page 161 and 162:
292 Carol Matlack, “Losing Crimea
Page 163:
314 Benjamin B. Fischer, “Doubles
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PUTIN’S RESET

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