Right time. - Regional Airline Association

although more point-to-point flying will be
apparent over the forecast period.
The delivery pattern for aircraft will be
dominated by regional jet aircraft in the
70- to 90-seat category which, because of
relaxation of pilot scope, will enable
regional airlines to provide seamless
passenger service from their major airline
partners at low seat mile unit costs. It is
expected that the US will take a large
proportion of deliveries of regional aircraft
worldwide, likely taking more than 50
percent of total world demand for 30- to
90-seat regional aircraft.
Available seat mile growth for the
regional airline industry over the next 10
years within the North American market
will average about 6 percent per year and
will be a multiple of gross domestic
product growth. US regional airline
passenger enplanement growth has developed
into an exponential pattern over the
last 35 years and may grow to a third of a
billion passengers by 2015 if growth is
maintained at 10 percent per year over
the next 10 years. A more moderate and
baseline growth rate of 6 percent
suggests passenger enplanements of a
quarter of a billion by 2015. (See charts to
right.)
Turboprop Forecast and
Developments
Turboprop aircraft continue to be an
important element in regional airline
deployment patterns. Although all sizes of
turboprops in passenger service have
declined substantially over the years (753
turboprops of all sizes are currently in
passenger service in the US compared with
1,680 in 1995), there is a recent revival of
turboprop fortunes. This renewal is due to
high fuel prices which have made the
turboprop much more valuable on shorter
sector routes than small regional jets.
Turboprop fleets, rather than being
replaced, are now being redeployed and
removal plans in some cases have been
postponed. Moreover, turboprop aircraft
have seen an increase in order backlog,
the first time in eight years.
Regional aircraft available seat miles - North America
Billions of ASMs
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Actual (12% average annual growth) Forecast (6% average annual growth)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US regional airline enplanements – actual and projection
Number of Passengers (millions)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Rolls-Royce North America.
The North American forecast indicates a
delivery demand for 125 new turboprops
over the next 10 years, many of which will
be in the large aircraft category, a result of
the necessity of lower unit costs and
better cabin comfort. Smaller turboprops
will continue to be removed from service
and thus, total in-service turboprops over
the forecast period will continue to fall.
While we are expecting turboprop deliveries
to continue through much of the
forecast period, we are forecasting that
current production aircraft as well as used
aircraft will meet aircraft turboprop fleet
Actual
Projection
Exponential
growth
scenario
Moderate
growth
scenario
requirements; hence, no new turboprop
aircraft developments will be required to
meet future regional airline demands.
30- to 50-Seat Regional Jet
Forecast and Developments
The 30- to 50-seat regional jet is the
workhorse of the US regional airline fleet.
Partly because of pilot scope restrictions
and availability of aircraft, the in-service
50-seat regional jet fleet now numbers
over 1,300 aircraft in the US and almost
1,400 in North America. The aircraft has
proved to work effectively in the hub and
RAA 2006 Annual Report 33
INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS