FOCUSThirdly, we need to carefullyreanalyze and draw lessonsfrom past Italian events topredict the potential secondaryconsequences associated withearthquakes. For example, the2016 Amatrice quake showsthat destroyed and damagedroads and bridges may hinderthe prompt arrival of rescueteams and heavy rescue machineryin the damaged area, andso on.Terra Seismic can predict mostmajor earthquakes (M6.2 or greater)at least 2 - 5 months beforethey will strike. Global earthquakeprediction is based on determinationsof the stressed areas that willstart to behave abnormally be- foremajor earthquakes. The size of theobserved stressed areas roughlycorresponds to estimates calculatedfrom Dobrovolsky’s formula.To identify abnormalities andmake predictions, Terra Seismicapplies various methodologies,including satellite remote sensingmethods and data from groundbasedinstruments. We currentlyprocess terabytes of informationdaily, and use more than 80 differentmultiparameter predictionsystems. Alerts are issued if theabnormalities are confirmed byat least five different systems. Weobserved that geophysical patternsof earthquake development andstress accumulation are generallythe same for all key seismic regions.Thus, the same earthquakeprediction methodologies andsystems can be applied successfullyworldwide. Our technology hasbeen used to retrospectively testdata gathered since 1970 and itsuccessfully detected about 90 percentof all significant quakes overthe last 50 years.www.terraseismic.orgFourthly, detailed action planscould be developed beforemajor events to address a region’sspecific characteristics.According to these plans, thegovernment would need toexamine and reinforce the criticaland important infrastructurein the area of a forthcomingquake – hospitals, schools,cultural heritage buildings, etc.The rational use of millions ofeuros on effective loss preventionmeasures before earthquakeshit is estimated to savebillions that are usually spenton recovery after earthquakes.Thus, thanks to this approach,billions of euros’ worth of economicdamage could be preventedin Italian earthquakesand these huge savings allocatedto other purposes.Fifthly, besides governmentfunding, private money and,specifically, insurance companiescould play a greater role inpreparedness and earthquakerisk mitigation. Earthquake insurancepenetration is currentlyvery low in Italy. One of themain reasons for this situationis that quake insurance is veryexpensive due to incorrect quakerisk assessment. Earthquakeprediction will assess quakerisk much more accurately,thus allowing insurers to offermuch lower premiumsfor many Italian regions andmake insurance coverage moreattractive. Innovation will createconditions for affordableearthquake insurance to penetrateinto the Italian market.Finally, in Italy, building collapsesare responsible for mostdeaths during earthquakes.The death toll would be significantlylower if people wereoutside and distanced from oldbuildings when the quake strikes.As such, a timely warningfor people to simply sleep andspend more time outside buildingsbefore major earthquakesrepresents a very cheap andeffective solution. Trainingdrills and early warning alarmswill be effective at preventingsignificant human loss due toearthquakes. Based on TerraSeismic’s global technology,we can dramatically reduce thehuman loss arising from theseawful perils and better protectItaly. Terra Seismic calls forcooperation with the ItalianCentral and Regional governmentsin order to improvepreparedness for forthcomingevents.REFERENCES ANDFURTHER READINGS1.Elshin, O. and Tronin, A.A.(2020) Global Earthquake PredictionSystems. Open Journal ofEarthquake Research, 9, 170-180.https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.075932.Earthquake-resistant buildings: thevulnerability of Italy’s infrastructurehttps://www.webuildvalue.com/en/infrastructure-news/earth-quakeresistant-buildings.html3.2016 Central Italy earthquakescost an estimated 208 million euros:PERILShttps://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/claims/2016-central-italy-earthquakes-cost-estimated-208-million-euros-perils-1004122686/#:~:text=The%20Italian%20Civil%20Protection%20Agency,insured%20loss%20of%20the%20Aug.KEYWORDSGlobal earthquake prediction;Big Data and novel technologies;Earthquakes; Remote sensing;Terra SeismicABSTRACTTerra Seismic can predict mostmajor earthquakes (M6.2 or greater)at least 2 - 5 months beforethey will strike.AUTHOROleg Elshinoleg.elshin@terraseismic.comPresident at Terra SeismicAlicante, Spain /Baar, Switzerland8 GEOmedia n°3-2020
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