Automotive Exports March 2021

Turkey’s
economy
outperforms
peers, grows by
1.8% in 2020
Turkey’s economy grew a less-thanexpected
but still robust 5.9% in the fourth
quarter of 2020 and 1.8% in the year as a
whole, data showed, emerging as one of
only a few globally to skirt a contraction
amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Propelled by a burst of credit in mid-2020,
the fourth-quarter gross domestic product
(GDP) grew 1.7% from the previous
quarter on a seasonally and calendaradjusted
basis, the Turkish Statistical
Institute (TurkStat) said.
A surge in GDP growth in the second
half of the year that surpassed Turkey’s
potential rate was driven by a near
doubling of lending by state banks to face
down the initial virus wave.
The Turkish lira firmed to 7.3175 against
the U.S. dollar after the GDP data and was
1.5% stronger than close.
Commenting on the data, Treasury and
Finance Minister Lütfi Elvan pointed out
that Turkey was one of the few countries
to end 2020 with positive growth.
The country outperformed all emerging
market (EM) and G-20 peers except China,
which grew 6.5% in the last quarter and
2.3% in the whole of 2020.
World economies mostly contracted
and tumbled into recessions last year,
with emerging and developing nations
shrinking by some 2.4%, according to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Only Turkey, China and Egypt were among
those seen growing, the IMF said.
In a Reuters poll, GDP was forecast to have
expanded 7.1% year-on-year in the fourth
quarter, despite new curfews and curbs
on the service sector to address a second
COVID-19 wave, and 2.3% for the whole
year.
The median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg
survey was for a 6.9% expansion.
A panel of 21 economists polled by
Anadolu Agency (AA) had projected a 2.2%
growth. Last year, the government had
forecast GDP growth of 0.3%.
Economists’ forecast for the last quarter
was 7% on average, ranging from 5% to
8.3%.
Below are highlights of the GDP report
released by TurkStat:
•Financial sector activity drove growth
in 2020, surging 21.4%, the TurkStat data
showed. The agricultural sector rose 4.8%
while the industry sector was up 2%.
March 2021 46