Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2020 - Leseprobe

REDAKTIONELLER TEIL
EDITORIAL SECTION
Aluminium in 2020: Rising consumption in spite of
an economic slowdown
Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner
IKB Deutsche Industriebank
Managing Director Industrials, Automotive & Services
In the course of the year until now, 2019 has been characterised
by geopolitical flashpoints and an economic
slowdown resulting from them in part.
World economy with weaker performance
For example, the Chinese economy grew by 6.2 % in the
2nd quarter of 2019 compared with the same period
in the previous year after the gross domestic product
(GDP) had still increased by 6.4 % in the 1st quarter.
Although the economic dynamism has thus diminished
slightly, a growth rate between 6.0 % and 6.5 % yoy
may still be assumed for the Chinese GDP in the whole
of 2019. This is based on that June data for the industrial
production and the retail trade which turned out to
be really strong and does not indicate any further slowdown
in the dynamism. Thus, China’s dynamism remains
solid and an important motor of the global economy.
A slowdown in economic activity is being shown for
the US economy too: For example, the GDP grew at an
annualised rate of just 2.1 % in the 2nd quarter of 2019
- after 3.2 % in the 1st quarter. Moreover, the number of
starts of construction work declined slightly in June
while the building permits dropped substantially by
more than 6 %. The US industrial production also stagnated
in June and thus fell short of the expectations.
In contrast, the positive development of the US retail
trade turnovers continued in June. For the whole year,
IKB is seeing a growth rate of around 2.6 %.
For the Euro zone, Eurostat confirmed the GDP growth
rate of 0.4 % qoq in the 1st quarter of 2019. Thus, the
currency area was once again able to expand somewhat
more strongly than in the previous quarters.
Amongst the large Euro countries, Spain is still the driving
force, followed by Germany and France. Italy’s
dynamism remained very subdued but it was at least
able to end the technical recession. All the Euro countries
raised their economic performances. The exception
was Latvia which, however, exhibited exceptionally
strong growth in the previous quarter. The dynamism
continues to be broadly based. For the Euro zone, IKB is
still assuming a GDP growth rate of 1.2 % in 2019.
In any case, quite a lot of major geopolitical risks will
exist for the next 18 months:
The probability of a hard Brexit has increased considerably
after the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa
May and the election of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.
Increasing uncertainty is already being reflected in
the British mood indicators which have deteriorated
since the summer of 2018. Moreover, GDP shrinkage
in the 2nd quarter of 2019 is already being foreseen
because of anticipatory effects in expectation of Brexit.
A hard Brexit will lead to a distinct decrease in the
growth in the EU countries too.
As a flashpoint, the Middle East continues to have impacts.
The wars in Syria and Yemen do not seem to be
coming to an end very quickly. A democratisation process
in Saudi Arabia is getting off the ground only extremely
slowly. However, it is primarily President Trump’s
termination of the atomic treaty with Iran which is de-
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