Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2020 - Leseprobe

REDAKTIONELLER TEIL
EDITORIAL SECTION
Strong growth in the worldwide fleet stock of electric vehicles
Forecast until 2030; in million
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2017 2020 2025 2030
Trucks - PHEV Buses - BEV LCVs - PHEV
LCVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV PLDVs - BEV
Remark: PLDV = Passenger light duty vehicle; LCV = light commerical vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Sources: International Energy Agency
Figure 2
However, one necessary prerequisite is that the prices
of batteries will continue to drop sharply. Only then will
electric vehicles constitute an economically viable option
in most countries in the second half of the 2020s.
In addition, it is still uncertain whether the necessary
quantities of lithium and cobalt will be available to a
sufficient extent.
The use of an electric battery in a car makes the total
weight rise even if the engine block and a few corresponding
parts are dispensed with. However, increased
lightweight construction is induced in order to counteract
this and thus leads to a further rise in the utilisation
of aluminium in cars.
However, unchanged stimuli also continue to come from
the construction sector. Not only does precisely housebuilding
in important conurbations use aluminium in the
facade segment but the utilisation of aluminium is also
en vogue in the interior equipment. In the long term too,
the great design-related diversity which can be achieved,
for example, by anodised surfaces will be a factor
in favour of the increased use of aluminium.
In mechanical engineering, aluminium is being utilised
increasingly also in certain segments such as robotics
or the hand-guided tools; even if mechanical engineering
in Germany should stagnate in 2019 or even register
a slight dip: In the long term, the signs are indicating
further growth, not least because of the fact that German
manufacturers are global market and technology
leaders in many sectors.
Further processing of aluminium with a positive
outlook
The most important further processing segments will
still register considerable rates of increase in the next
few years too:
The global production of cast aluminium rose from
8 million t in 2000 to 19 million t in 2017 (see Fig. 3).
Production of cast aluminium on a stable growth course
Production of cast aluminium in million t
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sources: CAEF; World Census; IKB Research
Figure 3
Rest of the world
China
China’s production of cast aluminium was just 0.8 million
t in 2000 but the Chinese aluminium foundries
set a new record with 7.3 million t of cast products in
2017: Within 17 years, the production of their aluminium
foundries rose by a factor of nine. In the rest of
the world, the production of cast aluminium increased
from 7.2 million t to over 12 million t in 2017. In contrast,
the global growth in the production of cast iron could
mainly be attributed to a rise in the Chinese production
with a stable production level in the rest of the world. In
contrast, the production of cast aluminium rose in all the
important regions of the world but at diverging growth
rates. For example, the production levels in the USA,
France and Russia stabilised between 2000 and 2017.
In contrast, Japan and Italy registered growth rates of
around 20 % in the same period and the German pro-
12 | Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2020