Aluminium_Lieferverzeichnis_2022_Leseprobe

REDAKTIONELLER TEIL
EDITORIAL SECTION
In addition, we also see construction output picking up
in other emerging countries in Asia.
Automotive industry 2022: Recovery process
continues
After light vehicle production slumped to just under 75
million in 2020, output is expected to reach 83 million
in 2021 and then 90 million vehicles per year in 2022.
The previous peak level of 95 million light vehicles is not
considered possible until 2024 or 2025.
By contrast, the production of e-vehicles is developing
much more dynamically: Electrical vehicles could
expand their share of sales considerably as early as
2020. A good assessment of this is provided by the study
published by the International Energy Agency (IEA)
in December 2020. The IEA analysts consider two possible
trend scenarios for the future importance of battery
and hybrid drives for the light vehicle market.
In the STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario), which is practically
the IEA’s baseline scenario, which is based on
the regulations and requirements already adopted by
governments and international organizations and also
takes into account company announcements and sales
plans. In the SDS (Sustainable Development Scenario)
variant, it is assumed that it will be possible to achieve
all the targets of the Paris climate protection agreement
and that the targets for the share of e-vehicles in
total passenger car sales adopted by 11 countries to
date will also be achieved.
Not surprisingly, therefore, there is a much higher ratio
of battery and hybrid vehicles in the SDS variant (see
Figure 3). Whereas in STEPS only about 14 million light
vehicles with some variant of electric drive are sold in
2025, this figure rises to 25 million units if the SDS targets
are achieved. However, in both scenarios, hybrid
variants still dominate in 2025. By contrast, 25.5 million
light vehicles will be sold in 2030 under STEPS, while
45 million light vehicles will be sold to customers if the
SDS variant is achieved. In this solution, the battery-powered
variants will also be ahead of the hybrid drives.
EV sales in mio. vehicles
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: McKinsey
Slide 3
2019 2025 Stated Policies
Scenario
2025 Sustainable
Development
Scenario
2030 Stated Policies
Scenario
China Europe USA Japan India Others
2030 Sustainable
Development
Scenario
However, aluminum sales are benefiting disproportionately
from e-mobility: One of the main reasons for
this is the trend toward lightweight construction in car
production. If, for example, a classic combustion engine
including peripherals is replaced by a complete
battery, the total weight of the light vehicle increases.
This is true even if a cast aluminum battery housing is
used. However, weight then has to be taken out of the
vehicle elsewhere.
It is therefore not surprising that the use of aluminum
in passenger cars continues to rise sharply. While an
average of 179 kg of aluminum was used in passenger
cars in 2019, this figure is expected to rise by 8 kg in
2021. By 2027, the use per light vehicle is expected to
exceed 210 kg. By comparison, 30 years ago this figure
was only 60 kg.
Crude oil price about to soar?
Under the impact of the sharp drop in oil prices in the
first half of 2020, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries) has significantly reduced its investment
plans for 2021. However, on the sidelines of the
OPEC ministerial meeting on July 1, 2021, it is likely to
be agreed that investments will be expanded in 2022 at
the latest. As the USA, one of the most important crude
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