Aluminium_Lieferverzeichnis_2022_Leseprobe

Source: Metallstatistik; IKB Research p = Forecast
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oil consumers, had to record significant weather-related
losses in oil production in spring 2021, its crude oil
stocks were reduced considerably. In addition, production
via fracking declined significantly in 2020 and will
not have returned to its previous peak level by the end
of June 2021.
World crude oil demand for 2021 is estimated at 96.5
mbd (million barrels per day). In 2020 as a whole, demand
was still 6 mbd lower. Positive demand developments
in the second half of the year 2021 result mainly
from North America, where the well-run vaccination
campaign is boosting demand in the mobility sector.
Non-OPEC production is expected to expand slightly
to 63.6 mbd in the current year. Higher production levels
are seen particularly in China, Brazil and Norway.
Thus, total OPEC crude oil demand stands at 27.7 mbd,
of which 5.2 mbd are NGL (natural gas liquids) grades.
By mid-year, OPEC production is still below this level as
a result of agreed cuts in output. By the end of 2021, we
see a movement (+US$10) in the crude oil price around
the US$70/barrel Brent mark (see Chart 4). The US reference
crude WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is around
US$3 per barrel below this level.
US-$ / Barrel
100
80
60
40
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: MBI
Slide 4
30.06.2021: 75,13
newworthy WTI 30.06.2021: 73,47
Aluminum demand continues to rise
So how will future demand for primary and recycled
aluminum develop? A first indicator may be the increasing
demand from automobile production. Assu-
ming, for example, an average aluminum input of 210
kg per light vehicle in 2027, with annual production
of 97 million light vehicles, the global automotive industry
alone will require around 20.4 million tons of
aluminum.
However, since other sectors such as the construction
industry or mechanical engineering and, to some extent,
the packaging industry will also record higher aluminum
use, we then see a total global aluminum use of
around 83 million t worldwide (see Fig. 5).
World consumption of aluminium; in 1.000 t
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Slide 5
Oceania America Africa China Asia without China Europe
More than half of this will be consumed by China. Aluminum
use in China also benefits from demographic
factors such as smaller household sizes and an increasingly
aging society. The latter phenomenon is reflected
in rising drug consumption and thus will increase
demand for aluminum for single-blistered-drugs (individually
packaged drugs).
Europe, the Americas and the rest of Asia are each expected
to use more than 10 million tons of aluminum,
with the mobility sector playing a prominent role in Europe
and North America. By 2027 we also see demand
picking up again from the aerospace industry, whose
aluminum consumption in the years 2020 to 2022 is
rather subdued. However, demand from the military
part of the industry is also likely to remain rather stable
in these years.
12 | Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2022