20.03.2013 Views

Medicare Payment Policy

Medicare Payment Policy

Medicare Payment Policy

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

FIguRe<br />

FIGURE<br />

3–9<br />

3-8<br />

Given a 20 percent increase in Medicaid enrollment and<br />

a 25 percent decline in the rate of the uninsured (as CBO<br />

estimated for 2014), we estimate that the net amount of<br />

payments to hospitals under the DSH and uncompensated<br />

care policies would decline by about $0.44 billion in 2014<br />

(Figure 3-9). 15<br />

In the future, if the insurance exchanges are successful<br />

and more people become insured, payments will decline<br />

Illustration of DsH payment changes under new 2014 DSH payment payment.... policy<br />

Note: DSH (disproportionate share hospital). Computations were made using 2011 <strong>Medicare</strong> payment rates and 2011 cases to isolate the effect of policy changes.<br />

Source: MedPAC simulation using Congressional Budget Office estimates of the rate of uninsurance.<br />

Note: In InDesign.<br />

New DSH<br />

25% of new pool<br />

25% × $13 billion<br />

$3.25 billion<br />

Key assumptions:<br />

• A 20 percent increase in Medicaid patients and inpatient days<br />

• A 25 percent decline in the rate of uninsured<br />

DSH/uncompensated care<br />

payments to hospitals<br />

$10.56 billion<br />

<strong>Medicare</strong> operating DSH<br />

before Medicaid expansion<br />

$11 billion<br />

Medicaid expansion<br />

DSH/uncompensated care pool<br />

after Medicaid expansion<br />

$13 billion<br />

Uncompensated care pool<br />

75% of new pool<br />

(75% × $13 billion)<br />

$9.75 billion<br />

Uncompensated care payments<br />

$9.75 billion × (100%–25% decline in uninsured)<br />

$7.31 billion<br />

Net effects on hospital payments under illustrative scenario<br />

• Starting level of DSH payments $11 billion<br />

• +$2 billion in payments due to 20 percent expansion of Medicaid<br />

• –$2.44 billion in payments due to 25 percent reduction in uninsured<br />

• Projected $10.56 billion in DSH/uncompensated care payments to hospitals<br />

• If the rate of uninsurance declines further, payments will decline further.<br />

Savings for the <strong>Medicare</strong> trust fund<br />

$9.75 billion × 25% decline in uninsured<br />

$2.44 billion<br />

significantly. For example, if Medicaid enrollment<br />

expanded by 25 percent and the number of uninsured<br />

individuals fell by 50 percent (as CBO estimated for<br />

2017), the pool of dollars going to hospitals would decline<br />

by roughly $2.3 billion, or 1.5 percent of all <strong>Medicare</strong><br />

payments. In general, as the rate of the uninsured declines,<br />

<strong>Medicare</strong> payments for uncompensated care will decline.<br />

We expect hospitals’ uncompensated care costs to decline<br />

Report to the Congress: <strong>Medicare</strong> <strong>Payment</strong> <strong>Policy</strong> | March 2013<br />

63

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!