2010-09-06 YURA_SWOT- PP4 - EU-Regionalmanagement ...

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2 Consequences of the demographic change In 2007, “Steirische Statistiken” published a detailed population forecast until the year 2031 (Tab. 4). This forecast is based on the results of two studies: Statistik Austria Gemeindeprognose, 2007, and ÖROK- Bezirksprognose, 2006. Unfortunately the provided maps show the situation in 2031. The available information shows a clear trend for the next twenty years. Additionally some tables describing population development and the distribution of the age groups in each district until the year 2021 confirm the trends presented in the maps below. The main scenario for Styria until the year 2031 is shown in Map 4. Steirische Statistiken identifies three main trends: - Suburbanisation vs. population decline in rural municipalities - Overageing of the population - Population growth by migration and declining birth rates 10 Map 4: Demographic forecast for Styria 2006-2031 (Raumplanung Steiermark, modified) 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2010-2021 2006-2031 Deutschlandsberg 60.920 60.884 60.283 59.651 59.148 58.657 -2,08% -3,71% Leibnitz 77.135 78.038 78.998 79.619 80.081 80.335 3,22% 4,15% Voitsberg 52.471 52.434 51.841 51.330 50.947 50.572 -2,17% -3,62% Total 190.526 191.356 191.122 190.600 190.176 189.564 0,04% -0,50% Table 11: Demographic development in SW-Styria 2010-2031 (Landesstatistik Steiermark) -
Map 4 represents the development of all Styrian municipalities from 2006 until 2031. It is obvious that most of the municipalities of Voitsberg (VO) and Deutschlandsberg (DL) are about to shrink. Due to its proximity to the city area of Graz the district of Leibnitz seems to be less affected by a decline in population. There is a clear link between the population development and the distance to Graz and its surroundings. This development is consistent with the Austrian trend towards suburbanization, but somehow influences the overall picture of a district threatened by a population decline towards the west. Especially municipalities in the western parts of the region will have to face serious changes due to a considerable decline in residents. Table 11 indicates that the number of residents will increase by 0,04% until 2021 and shrink by -0,50% until 2031. As mentioned above the districts of Deutschlandsberg and Voitsberg are confronted with a permanent decrease in number of residents. This forecast was calculated in 2006 and there might be some inaccuracies because current statistics show that the number of residents has already declined faster than expected (in 2011, a gap of almost 1000 people can be observed). Therefore, the decline of population until 2021 might turn out higher than expected. 11 Diagram 8: Development of the age group distribution 2001-2031 (Landesstatistik Steiermark) 2001 2011 2021 2031 Changes 01-31 0-14 years 16,83% 13,96% 13,20% 12,79% -4,04% 15-59 years 61,99% 62,15% 58,28% 52,68% -9,31% >60 years 21,18% 23,89% 28,52% 34,53% 13,34% Table 12: Development of the age group distribution 2001-2031 (Landesstatistik Steiermark)
Page 1 and 2: 1 Central Europe Project PP4: Regio
Page 3 and 4: Abbreviations AHS Allgemeine höher
Page 5 and 6: Demographic development 5 1991 2001
Page 7 and 8: Migration Concerning migration patt
Page 9: Unemployment rates in South-West-St
Page 13 and 14: 13 Representative of the chamber of
Page 15 and 16: 15 - Other educational institutions
Page 17 and 18: Split into different school types t
Page 19 and 20: 19 - Kolleg A Kolleg is sometimes o
Page 21 and 22: 21 - School - University cooperatio
Page 23 and 24: 23 Faszination-Technik-Challenge 6
Page 25 and 26: 25 Several schools organize days wi
Page 27 and 28: 6 Identification of strengths 27 Wh
Page 29 and 30: 7 Identification of weaknesses 29 W
Page 31 and 32: 8 Identification of opportunities a
Page 33 and 34: 33 What are the trends from which o
Page 35 and 36: 35 How to deal with school- and tra
Page 37 and 38: 11 Literature sources and reference
Page 39: Index of tables and figures Diagram

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