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Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales / Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar those candidate countries that are heavily dependent on EU commodity, services, and capital markets. Perhaps the most dangerous consequence could be growing social opposition or even hostility to some key elements of the catch-up process. Developments in recent years have led to a highly uneven distribution of income and have burdened large parts of society with adjustment costs, and the search for scapegoats has already started. If populist and demagogic arguments come to identify the international environment in general, and foreign capital and the European Union in particular, as the main enemies of a "genuine national development," the sustainability of the modernization process could come into question. (Inotai A. “Sustainability of the Transformation Process in Central and Eastern Europe”, available at: http://www.inwent.org/eftexte/web02/inotai.htm) In Tausch/Herrmann, it was said on the other hand that large scale outward migration from the periphery to the center conserves economic structures in the periphery that inhibit peripheral world economic adjustment. The most pronounced proponents of mass migration, it was further argued, from the semiperiphery and periphery are in reality those very social strata that represent the powerful urban power monopolies: instead of bringing their monopolies under the discipline of the market and allowing their agricultural regions to prosper under a system of export-led growth and mass-demand at home, they are inclined to send a considerable part of their talented work-force abroad so that it does not constitute any threat to the elites’ privileged social position. State sector expenditures and a reliance on foreign aid will be part and parcel of such a migration-driven development model. The empirical evidence that was achieved by combining available data for worker remittances in 59 countries with a 109 country sample with complete data of the general model, presented in Tausch (2003b, 2005c, and 2005d) confirms a mixture of world system and neo-classical interpretations: 1) dependency on worker remittances is highly influenced by the supply of free and relatively high standard education in many of the semi-periphery countries that is reflected in the public education expenditure per GDP indicator. This argument would tend to be compatible with standard neo-classical analysis. But the status of a country as a guest worker economy is also greatly influenced by the “flows of unequal exchange”, or – to put it in the language of the neoclassics, exchange rate under-valuation; and ceteris paribus Muslim nations have a significantly higher propensity towards migration. Labor scarcities in the center that drain up the “industrial reserve army”, like those induced by high military expenditures; certainly contribute significantly towards the status of a country as a net labor importer. 2) outward migration eases to a great extent the national sending country gap between rich and poor, but it significantly (5 % level) is associated with slow economic growth. Outward migration reduces unemployment in the sending countries, but the effect is not significant. There are very significant positive effects on female shares in total life years and female economic activity rates (very well explainable by arising scarcities on the labor market caused by massive male outward migration), as well as on combined indices of development (the Human Development Index). There is also a 12.5 % significant Arno Tausch, Christian Bischof, Tomz Kastrun, Karl Mueller 130
Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales / Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar positive effect on female life expectancy. The effect of migration on the environment is contradictory: on the one hand, outward migration increases the transport intensity of a country, and thus reduces the GDP output efficiency of energy use (significant at the 12.5 % level). Outward migration is also associated with higher CO2 emissions per capita (not significant at the 12.5 % level), but the Yale/Columbia overall environment sustainability index is significantly better at the 12.5 % level (most probably, because the pressure on farm land and other resources, especially in the rural regions, decreases with massive outward migration). Interestingly enough, also the other conjecture is true: countries at the receiving end of international migration flows will be tending towards unequal growth, with deficient gender development and human development. They will experience a socially polarized development pattern, characterized by high gaps between rich and poor, but by a rapid rate of economic growth. By and large, these results tended to support the view that much more intensive research on migration, social well being and the world system is needed to reach a canon of well-confirmed hypotheses on the subject [Arrighi G. and Silver B. J. (1984), Bauer Th. and Zimmermann, K. F.(1999), Boehring W.R. and Schloeter - Paredes M.L. (1994), Cohen R. (1991), Cohn - Bendit D. (1993), Coppel J. et al. (2001), Datta A. (1993), Franzmeyer F./Brücker H. (1997), Garson J. P. et al. (1997), Goedings S. (1997), Goedings S. (1999), ICMPD (1998), IFO-Institut (1999), IOM (International Organization for Migration) (1999), Korcelli P. (1992), Lindert P. H, and Williamson J. G. (2001), Loeffelholz H. D., und G. Köpp (1998), Morawska E. (2000), Nuscheler F. (1993), Opitz P. J. (1988), Parnreiter Ch. (1994), Rogers R. (1992), Salt J. (1996), Salt J. et al. (1999), Stalker P. (1994), Tausch A. (1997), Tausch A. (2004c), United Nations Economic and Social Council (1993a), United Nations Economic and Social Council (1993b), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (1994), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (1996), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (1998), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and United Nations Population Fund (1998), United States Central Intelligence Agency, National Foreign Intelligence Board (2001), United States Department of State (current issues), Williamson J. G. (1991), Williamson J. G. (1996), Williamson J. G. (1997), Williamson J. G. (1998a), and Williamson J. G. (1998b)]. Countering some alarmist voices in the West, neither migration nor Muslim culture are to be blamed for the contemporary crisis, but the very nature of unequal capitalist accumulation and dependency that is at the core of the world capitalist system. What is our quantitative proof for this? The United Nations World Economic and Social Survey, 2004, presents for the first time in the international literature a really comparable data set on migration patterns in world society from 1950 to 2000. The data are presented in the Table below, ranked by the total number of immigrants in millions of persons. Table 3: the world migration balances, 1950 - 2000 Arno Tausch, Christian Bischof, Tomz Kastrun, Karl Mueller 131
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AT Austria BE Belgiu m Centro Argen
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DE Germa ny DK Denma rk Centro Arge
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