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The Future of Animal Agriculture in North America - Farm Foundation

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on support for genetic improvement, <strong>in</strong>tegral project<br />

development and shepherd<strong>in</strong>g land recovery. Government<br />

assistance to hog production is implemented by two programs.<br />

<strong>The</strong> Genetic Improvement Program promotes acquisition <strong>of</strong><br />

reproductive animals and breed<strong>in</strong>g stock <strong>of</strong> better genetic<br />

quality. <strong>The</strong> Hog and Poultry Program promotes development<br />

<strong>of</strong> projects for the acquisition <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>frastructure and equipment.<br />

Economics <strong>of</strong> Production, Process<strong>in</strong>g and Market<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Incentive payments are also paid to producers to encourage<br />

higher quality production that can meet the standards <strong>of</strong><br />

federally certified harvest plants. In 2003, Mexico implemented<br />

a program to support gra<strong>in</strong> consumption on hog farms, us<strong>in</strong>g<br />

contracts between hog and gra<strong>in</strong> producers.<br />

Cross Border <strong>Animal</strong>/Product Movements<br />

Movements <strong>of</strong> animals and products across Canadian, Mexican<br />

and U.S. borders vary depend<strong>in</strong>g on such factors as exchange<br />

rate, regulatory programs, economies <strong>of</strong> scale, differences <strong>in</strong><br />

grad<strong>in</strong>g systems, existence <strong>of</strong> home biases, threats <strong>of</strong> antidump<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and countervail actions, and temporary production<br />

shortfalls due to disease or grow<strong>in</strong>g conditions. Two examples<br />

illustrate the impacts <strong>of</strong> border disruptions on location <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment, <strong>in</strong>dustry growth and productivity.<br />

In 1985, the United States imposed a countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty on<br />

exports <strong>of</strong> both hogs and pork from Canada. <strong>The</strong> International<br />

Trade Commission (ITC) determ<strong>in</strong>ed that exports <strong>of</strong> hogs from<br />

Canada threatened to <strong>in</strong>jure the U.S. hog <strong>in</strong>dustry, and the<br />

duty on hogs was upheld. No other markets to which Canada<br />

was export<strong>in</strong>g were directly affected. In 1989, another<br />

countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty allegation contended that exports <strong>of</strong> pork<br />

were be<strong>in</strong>g subsidized, caus<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>jury to the U.S. pork <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />

A duty was imposed <strong>in</strong> May 1989. Canada successfully<br />

challenged the decisions on subsidy and <strong>in</strong>jury under both the<br />

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the<br />

Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and the duty was<br />

elim<strong>in</strong>ated <strong>in</strong> 1991.<br />

<strong>The</strong> overall impacts <strong>of</strong> the countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty were tw<strong>of</strong>old.<br />

First, harvest/slaughter facilities expanded <strong>in</strong> Canada at a more<br />

rapid rate than had the markets rema<strong>in</strong>ed fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated.<br />

Because <strong>of</strong> the countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty, <strong>in</strong>vestment and related jobs<br />

<strong>in</strong> hog process<strong>in</strong>g shifted to Canada from the United States.<br />

Second, the Canadian hog/pork <strong>in</strong>dustry strengthened efforts to<br />

expand market share for Canadian pork products <strong>in</strong> the Asian<br />

markets, <strong>in</strong> competition with products from other countries,<br />

<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the United States.<br />

In a second example, the discovery <strong>of</strong> BSE <strong>in</strong> Canada <strong>in</strong> May<br />

2003 resulted <strong>in</strong> prohibition <strong>of</strong> Canadian exports <strong>of</strong> live cattle<br />

and beef products to the United States and other countries.<br />

This had a number <strong>of</strong> consequences <strong>in</strong> Canada:<br />

• <strong>The</strong> price <strong>of</strong> cattle over 30 months (OTM) <strong>in</strong> age fell<br />

dramatically, lower<strong>in</strong>g the equity value <strong>in</strong> the herd held by<br />

Canadian farmers. While the usual expectation <strong>in</strong> markets<br />

with low prices is that the herd would dim<strong>in</strong>ish <strong>in</strong> Canada,<br />

the opposite has happened. OTM cattle are be<strong>in</strong>g held<br />

back and re-bred, <strong>in</strong> part because <strong>of</strong> the exceed<strong>in</strong>gly low<br />

prices <strong>in</strong> Canada, and <strong>in</strong> part from the lack <strong>of</strong> adequate<br />

harvest/slaughter facilities <strong>in</strong> Canada. At the same time,<br />

heifers are enter<strong>in</strong>g the Canadian herd. Consequently, herd<br />

expansion and subsequent annual calf crops are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />

more rapidly than <strong>in</strong> previous periods, and more rapidly than<br />

would have been the case had the border rema<strong>in</strong>ed open.<br />

• <strong>The</strong> fed cattle price difference between Canada and the<br />

United States has grown substantially—from about US$5-$6<br />

per hundredweight (cwt) to about U.S. $20-$30/cwt for<br />

the period after trade <strong>in</strong> boneless product from cattle under<br />

30 months <strong>of</strong> age (UTM) was re-established. For the pack<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> Canada, the result has been considerably larger<br />

marg<strong>in</strong>s than before May 2003, stemm<strong>in</strong>g from both the<br />

domestic market sales (because <strong>of</strong> the limited change <strong>in</strong> retail<br />

prices) and higher U.S. prices for exported boneless beef.<br />

• Faced with limited harvest/slaughter capacity and the<br />

grow<strong>in</strong>g realization <strong>of</strong> long-term <strong>in</strong>security <strong>of</strong> U.S. trade,<br />

major efforts are under way to expand harvest/slaughter and<br />

process<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong> Canada. At the same time, pack<strong>in</strong>g<br />

plants <strong>in</strong> the border states <strong>of</strong> the United States are clos<strong>in</strong>g<br />

because <strong>of</strong> the loss <strong>of</strong> access to Canadian live cattle.<br />

In summary, trade restrictions and the atmosphere regard<strong>in</strong>g<br />

trade <strong>in</strong> animals and animal products between Canada and the<br />

United States are prompt<strong>in</strong>g greater <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong><br />

harvest/slaughter capacity <strong>in</strong> Canada and a loss <strong>of</strong> similar<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments and jobs <strong>in</strong> the United States. <strong>The</strong> Canadian cattle<br />

herd is expand<strong>in</strong>g more rapidly than would have been the case<br />

without restrictions, and more rapidly than the U.S. cattle herd.<br />

Periodic or extended periods <strong>of</strong> trade disruption <strong>in</strong> one or more<br />

components <strong>of</strong> fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated markets can cause significant<br />

long-term effects <strong>in</strong> the size and competitiveness <strong>of</strong> an <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />

at farm and process<strong>in</strong>g levels. Even though consumer-level<br />

prices may rema<strong>in</strong> fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated, distribution <strong>of</strong> the marg<strong>in</strong>s<br />

with<strong>in</strong> the value cha<strong>in</strong> can change sharply for extended periods.<br />

As a result, location <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestments, particularly for process<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and distribution, can be expected to change over time <strong>in</strong><br />

response to these unforeseen disruptions.<br />

Cost Drivers<br />

Access to Inputs<br />

Feed Costs and <strong>Future</strong> Nutritional Technology: Feed is the highest<br />

operat<strong>in</strong>g cost—50 percent to 60 percent—<strong>of</strong> most animal<br />

production operations. Any change <strong>in</strong> feed costs dramatically<br />

impacts pr<strong>of</strong>itability. Use <strong>of</strong> antibiotics, feed additives, dietary<br />

modifiers and specialized feed <strong>in</strong>gredients has focused on<br />

<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g animal productivity. Research works to determ<strong>in</strong>e

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