The Future of Animal Agriculture in North America - Farm Foundation
The Future of Animal Agriculture in North America - Farm Foundation
The Future of Animal Agriculture in North America - Farm Foundation
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on support for genetic improvement, <strong>in</strong>tegral project<br />
development and shepherd<strong>in</strong>g land recovery. Government<br />
assistance to hog production is implemented by two programs.<br />
<strong>The</strong> Genetic Improvement Program promotes acquisition <strong>of</strong><br />
reproductive animals and breed<strong>in</strong>g stock <strong>of</strong> better genetic<br />
quality. <strong>The</strong> Hog and Poultry Program promotes development<br />
<strong>of</strong> projects for the acquisition <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>frastructure and equipment.<br />
Economics <strong>of</strong> Production, Process<strong>in</strong>g and Market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Incentive payments are also paid to producers to encourage<br />
higher quality production that can meet the standards <strong>of</strong><br />
federally certified harvest plants. In 2003, Mexico implemented<br />
a program to support gra<strong>in</strong> consumption on hog farms, us<strong>in</strong>g<br />
contracts between hog and gra<strong>in</strong> producers.<br />
Cross Border <strong>Animal</strong>/Product Movements<br />
Movements <strong>of</strong> animals and products across Canadian, Mexican<br />
and U.S. borders vary depend<strong>in</strong>g on such factors as exchange<br />
rate, regulatory programs, economies <strong>of</strong> scale, differences <strong>in</strong><br />
grad<strong>in</strong>g systems, existence <strong>of</strong> home biases, threats <strong>of</strong> antidump<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and countervail actions, and temporary production<br />
shortfalls due to disease or grow<strong>in</strong>g conditions. Two examples<br />
illustrate the impacts <strong>of</strong> border disruptions on location <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment, <strong>in</strong>dustry growth and productivity.<br />
In 1985, the United States imposed a countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty on<br />
exports <strong>of</strong> both hogs and pork from Canada. <strong>The</strong> International<br />
Trade Commission (ITC) determ<strong>in</strong>ed that exports <strong>of</strong> hogs from<br />
Canada threatened to <strong>in</strong>jure the U.S. hog <strong>in</strong>dustry, and the<br />
duty on hogs was upheld. No other markets to which Canada<br />
was export<strong>in</strong>g were directly affected. In 1989, another<br />
countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty allegation contended that exports <strong>of</strong> pork<br />
were be<strong>in</strong>g subsidized, caus<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>jury to the U.S. pork <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />
A duty was imposed <strong>in</strong> May 1989. Canada successfully<br />
challenged the decisions on subsidy and <strong>in</strong>jury under both the<br />
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the<br />
Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and the duty was<br />
elim<strong>in</strong>ated <strong>in</strong> 1991.<br />
<strong>The</strong> overall impacts <strong>of</strong> the countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty were tw<strong>of</strong>old.<br />
First, harvest/slaughter facilities expanded <strong>in</strong> Canada at a more<br />
rapid rate than had the markets rema<strong>in</strong>ed fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated.<br />
Because <strong>of</strong> the countervail<strong>in</strong>g duty, <strong>in</strong>vestment and related jobs<br />
<strong>in</strong> hog process<strong>in</strong>g shifted to Canada from the United States.<br />
Second, the Canadian hog/pork <strong>in</strong>dustry strengthened efforts to<br />
expand market share for Canadian pork products <strong>in</strong> the Asian<br />
markets, <strong>in</strong> competition with products from other countries,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the United States.<br />
In a second example, the discovery <strong>of</strong> BSE <strong>in</strong> Canada <strong>in</strong> May<br />
2003 resulted <strong>in</strong> prohibition <strong>of</strong> Canadian exports <strong>of</strong> live cattle<br />
and beef products to the United States and other countries.<br />
This had a number <strong>of</strong> consequences <strong>in</strong> Canada:<br />
• <strong>The</strong> price <strong>of</strong> cattle over 30 months (OTM) <strong>in</strong> age fell<br />
dramatically, lower<strong>in</strong>g the equity value <strong>in</strong> the herd held by<br />
Canadian farmers. While the usual expectation <strong>in</strong> markets<br />
with low prices is that the herd would dim<strong>in</strong>ish <strong>in</strong> Canada,<br />
the opposite has happened. OTM cattle are be<strong>in</strong>g held<br />
back and re-bred, <strong>in</strong> part because <strong>of</strong> the exceed<strong>in</strong>gly low<br />
prices <strong>in</strong> Canada, and <strong>in</strong> part from the lack <strong>of</strong> adequate<br />
harvest/slaughter facilities <strong>in</strong> Canada. At the same time,<br />
heifers are enter<strong>in</strong>g the Canadian herd. Consequently, herd<br />
expansion and subsequent annual calf crops are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />
more rapidly than <strong>in</strong> previous periods, and more rapidly than<br />
would have been the case had the border rema<strong>in</strong>ed open.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> fed cattle price difference between Canada and the<br />
United States has grown substantially—from about US$5-$6<br />
per hundredweight (cwt) to about U.S. $20-$30/cwt for<br />
the period after trade <strong>in</strong> boneless product from cattle under<br />
30 months <strong>of</strong> age (UTM) was re-established. For the pack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> Canada, the result has been considerably larger<br />
marg<strong>in</strong>s than before May 2003, stemm<strong>in</strong>g from both the<br />
domestic market sales (because <strong>of</strong> the limited change <strong>in</strong> retail<br />
prices) and higher U.S. prices for exported boneless beef.<br />
• Faced with limited harvest/slaughter capacity and the<br />
grow<strong>in</strong>g realization <strong>of</strong> long-term <strong>in</strong>security <strong>of</strong> U.S. trade,<br />
major efforts are under way to expand harvest/slaughter and<br />
process<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong> Canada. At the same time, pack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
plants <strong>in</strong> the border states <strong>of</strong> the United States are clos<strong>in</strong>g<br />
because <strong>of</strong> the loss <strong>of</strong> access to Canadian live cattle.<br />
In summary, trade restrictions and the atmosphere regard<strong>in</strong>g<br />
trade <strong>in</strong> animals and animal products between Canada and the<br />
United States are prompt<strong>in</strong>g greater <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong><br />
harvest/slaughter capacity <strong>in</strong> Canada and a loss <strong>of</strong> similar<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestments and jobs <strong>in</strong> the United States. <strong>The</strong> Canadian cattle<br />
herd is expand<strong>in</strong>g more rapidly than would have been the case<br />
without restrictions, and more rapidly than the U.S. cattle herd.<br />
Periodic or extended periods <strong>of</strong> trade disruption <strong>in</strong> one or more<br />
components <strong>of</strong> fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated markets can cause significant<br />
long-term effects <strong>in</strong> the size and competitiveness <strong>of</strong> an <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />
at farm and process<strong>in</strong>g levels. Even though consumer-level<br />
prices may rema<strong>in</strong> fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated, distribution <strong>of</strong> the marg<strong>in</strong>s<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the value cha<strong>in</strong> can change sharply for extended periods.<br />
As a result, location <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestments, particularly for process<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and distribution, can be expected to change over time <strong>in</strong><br />
response to these unforeseen disruptions.<br />
Cost Drivers<br />
Access to Inputs<br />
Feed Costs and <strong>Future</strong> Nutritional Technology: Feed is the highest<br />
operat<strong>in</strong>g cost—50 percent to 60 percent—<strong>of</strong> most animal<br />
production operations. Any change <strong>in</strong> feed costs dramatically<br />
impacts pr<strong>of</strong>itability. Use <strong>of</strong> antibiotics, feed additives, dietary<br />
modifiers and specialized feed <strong>in</strong>gredients has focused on<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g animal productivity. Research works to determ<strong>in</strong>e