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With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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freezing over in winter. And Euan Nisbet, of London's Royal Holloway<br />

College, who oversees a big international methane-monitoring program that<br />

includes Siberia, said his estimate was that methane releases from the<br />

western Siberian peat bog were up to 100,000 tons a day, which meant a<br />

warming effect on the planet greater than that of all the U.S.'s man-made<br />

emissions. "This huge methane flux depends on temperature," he said. "If<br />

peatl<strong>and</strong>s become wetter with warming <strong>and</strong> permafrost degradation,<br />

methane release from peatl<strong>and</strong>s to the atmosphere will dramatically<br />

increase."<br />

So I wrote up Kirpotin's story for New Scientist magazine, emphasizing<br />

the methane angle. It went around the world. The London Guardian<br />

reproduced much of it the day after the story was released, under the<br />

front-page banner headline "Warming hits 'tipping point.'" In Dr.<br />

Strangelove, one nuclear device dropped on Siberia unleashed a thous<strong>and</strong><br />

more. Here, in the real world of melting Arctic permafrost, one degree of<br />

global warming could unleash enough methane to raise temperatures<br />

several more degrees.<br />

I had visited western Siberia a few years before, traveling with Western<br />

forest <strong>and</strong> oil-industry scientists to Noyabr'sk, a large oil town on the south<br />

side of the great peat bog. On a series of helicopter rides, I had seen<br />

thous<strong>and</strong>s of square miles of still-intact swamp sitting on top of permafrost.<br />

The l<strong>and</strong>scape was terribly scarred by human activity: divided into<br />

fragments by oil pipelines, roads, pylons, <strong>and</strong> seismic-survey routes;<br />

smeared with spilled oil; littered with ab<strong>and</strong>oned drums, pipes, cables, <strong>and</strong><br />

the remains of old gulags <strong>and</strong> half-built railways; <strong>and</strong> shrouded in black

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