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With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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It turns out that the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the sun drives the<br />

100,000-year cycles into <strong>and</strong> out of ice ages. Meanwhile, the other two<br />

effects, especially the precession, seem to trigger the short warm episodes<br />

that punctuate each ice age.<br />

Croll realized that, averaged over a year, these changes made little<br />

difference to the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth. The overall effect<br />

was probably less than 0.2 watts per 10.8 square feet. But the changes did<br />

alter where <strong>and</strong> when the sun hit. Croll calculated in great detail how these<br />

influences waxed <strong>and</strong> waned over tens of thous<strong>and</strong>s of years. And he<br />

established, at any rate to his own satisfaction, that they coincided with what<br />

geologists were then discovering about the timing of Earth's progress into<br />

<strong>and</strong> out of ice ages.<br />

Taken together, the changing orbital shape, planetary tilt, <strong>and</strong> rotational<br />

wobble alter the strength of seasonality, making summers <strong>and</strong> winters more<br />

or less intense. And it was this that triggered the growth of ice sheets on l<strong>and</strong><br />

in the Northern Hemisphere, he said. Ice sheets would grow when northern<br />

winters were coldest. That would be when Earth was farthest from the sun,<br />

<strong>and</strong> when changing tilt ensured that it received the least sunlight. Once ice<br />

sheets started to grow, they would reflect ever more sunlight back into space,<br />

intensifying the cooling. Croll realized, too, that there was much less room<br />

for ice sheets to spread in the Southern Hemisphere, because they were<br />

confined to the continent of Antarctica. So the Northern Hemisphere would<br />

dominate events, driving the overall heat budget of the planet. But, he<br />

suggested, other feedbacks, such as changes to winds <strong>and</strong> ocean currents,<br />

could help drive the world further into an ice age.

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