With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

Singapore, and several oil-rich Gulf states). The U.S. and Australia originally
signed up to Kyoto targets, but then pulled out. The protocol came into force
in 2005, and at the end of that year, its signatories agreed to start
negotiations on tougher cuts to come into force after 2012.
So far, so good. But the current Kyoto targets are very small compared
with the cuts in emissions that will eventually be needed. And the delay has
effectively shut off the option of a safety-first limit on carbon concentrations
in the atmosphere. Some European countries have set themselves informal
targets of a 60 percent emissions reduction by midcentury, which is closer to
what is needed. But even if all the Kyoto nations did likewise, they are
responsible for only a minority of emissions today. So more cuts by other
nations would still be needed.
Eventually, if the climate regime develops as many hope, every country
and every major energy and manufacturing company will need a license to
emit greenhouse gases. The system, some say, could even be extended to
individuals. If we are to stop dangerous climate change, the number of
licenses available will have to be very limited. So the question of how they
should be shared out becomes critical. It is political dynamite. The very
suggestion sets the industrialized and developing worlds at loggerheads.
This is partly because the industrialized countries of Europe and North
America have already used up something like half of the atmospheric
"space" available for emissions, and partly because developing nations are
coming under pressure to reduce their emissions before they have had a
chance to industrialize.
Big developing nations like China and India may have high national
emissions. But measured in ratio to population, their emissions remain low.