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With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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In recent years, Larsen B had been moving forward by about a yard a day.<br />

Despite this constant movement, the ice shelf itself, at more than 650 feet<br />

thick, was a surprisingly permanent structure. After its collapse, study of the<br />

diatoms in the sediment beneath the former shelf suggested that Larsen B<br />

had been there for the entire 12,000 years since the end of the last ice age,<br />

when a single ice sheet covered the whole region.<br />

Larsen B wasn't alone; nor has it been alone in disappearing. In all, more<br />

than 500 square miles of ice shelves have been lost from around the<br />

Antarctic Peninsula in the past half century. The Larsen A ice shelf, the other<br />

side of an ice-covered headl<strong>and</strong> called Seal Nunatak, broke up in a storm in<br />

1995. And before that, the Wordie shelf, on the west side of the peninsula,<br />

disappeared between 1974 <strong>and</strong> 1996, triggering a dramatic thinning of the<br />

glaciers that fed it. But both were much smaller than Larsen B, <strong>and</strong> neither<br />

disappeared in the catastrophic manner of Larsen B.<br />

"Really we don't think there is much doubt that the collapse of the Larsen<br />

B shelf was caused by man-made climate change," says John King, chief<br />

climatologist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the inheritor of the great<br />

tradition of explorers such as Robert Scott <strong>and</strong> Ernest Shackleton. From<br />

their base at Rothera, on Adelaide Isl<strong>and</strong>, BAS researchers have mapped in<br />

detail how a pulse of warmer air temperatures has pushed south across the<br />

peninsula over the past fifty years, lengthening the summer melt season,<br />

sending glaciers into retreat, <strong>and</strong> destabilizing ice shelves as it goes.<br />

Armed with the evidence of Larsen B, glaciologists are reassessing the<br />

stability of dozens of peninsula ice shelves—starting with Larsen C,<br />

immediately to the south, which is thinning <strong>and</strong> widely expected to be the<br />

next to go. Eventually, they say, the warming will reach the Ronne ice shelf, a

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