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With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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importance for a country entirely dependent on just a hundred days of<br />

monsoon rains to water the crops that feed a billion people. A wider collapse<br />

of the monsoon in South Asia would be a global calamity of immense<br />

proportions. It could happen.<br />

East Asia could be in the same boat—a situation that would threaten food<br />

production for the world's most populous nation, China. North of the<br />

Himalayas, there is a similar intense brown haze in winter, though it is<br />

composed less of the smoke from burning cow dung <strong>and</strong> more of the sulfur<br />

dioxide <strong>and</strong> other fumes from burning coal. And it is interrupting the sun's<br />

rays. When Yun Qian <strong>and</strong> Dale Kaiser, of the U.S. government's Northwest<br />

National Laboratory, in Richmond, Washington, studied the records of<br />

Chinese meteorological sunshine recorders over the past fifty years, they<br />

found a decline in sunshine since 1980 of 5 or 6 percent in the most polluted<br />

south <strong>and</strong> east of the country.<br />

And this decline is lowering temperatures. While global warming is<br />

evident across much of China, daytime temperatures in the most polluted<br />

regions have fallen by about 1°F. That, in turn, is altering rainfall patterns. In<br />

the south of the country, the monsoon rains are becoming stronger, with<br />

flooding in the great southern river, the Yangtze; whereas farther north, in<br />

the catchment of the Yellow River, there is now less rainfall. Chinese records,<br />

which are among the most meticulous in the world, suggest that this shift is<br />

the biggest alteration in the country's rainfall patterns in a thous<strong>and</strong> years.<br />

To some extent, links between the rainfall trends <strong>and</strong> the increasing brown<br />

haze are conjecture. But when climate models are programmed to include a<br />

strong Asian brown haze, many of them produce extra rainfall in southern

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