Final Report on RREF 2001 - Department of Health

Part C: Outcomes
• Compared to the model with six variables with no adjustment in the weighting of the need
variables, the effect of using only four variables or of adjusting the weighting of selected
variables was to reduce the overall variability across all regions rather than bringing about
significant changes in regional shares of growth funds. This outcome is largely because
reducing the number of variables or increasing the weighting of selected variables has the
effect of suppressing the contribution of the other variables. While the impact of the
variables that are retained or given increased weighting becomes more dominant, the
capacity of the model to capture variations in need due to other variables is limited.
• Further models could be developed including or excluding other need variables and
applying different weightings. While further models are likely to show other variations in
regional shares in growth funds, and possibly in different directions, the effects are likely to
be even smaller as other variables did not make as large contributions to the overall model
as those selected in the examples presented here.
• A selection of the initial models was developed to show outcomes in 2006 and reported in
the Options Paper. The outcomes show that the RREF has an in-built dynamic through
annual adjustment in line with population projections and changes in the components of the
base populations, and changes in the resource allocations are driven accordingly. The
results of the projections for the initial model are not reported here but projected outcomes
for the revised modelling are detailed in Table 7.3.
7.3 OPTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS
The options presented in Step 7 in the Options Paper illustrated the impact of modelling a range
of variables and different weightings, as summarised below. Views on these outcomes were
sought in the Round 2 Consultations.
Options for different
base populations,
with even weighting
of variables
The effects of underlying demographic trends are evident
in continuation of the current RREF and carry through all
options.
The effects of RREF options on the distribution of growth
funds between regions will also affect performance targets.
Options for 4 or 6
variable model
Options for
unadjusted or
adjusted weighting of
variables
Is a 4 variable model preferred?
Or is a 6 variable model preferred as being more
comprehensive?
Should models be prepared with different weightings for
other variables – if so,
which variables, and
how much should they be weighted?
<strong>Final</strong> <strong>Report</strong> July 2001 76