DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

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after a mi nor po li ti cal cri sis and spe ci al pa rli ame nta ry
ele cti ons, aspi red to di mi ni sh, as much as po ssi ble, the
ne ga ti ve effe cts of this inde pe nde nce de cla ra ti on on its
inte rnal po li ti cs, which we re po la ri zed to the extre me. 3
The pre ssu re cre ated by co nse rva ti ve and na ti ona li stic
fo rces was such that not re spo ndi ng to the si tu ati on
wo uld be inte rpre ted as the betrayal of Kosovo. 4 On the
other ha nd, any di spro po rti onal re spo nse thre ate ned
to enda nger re la ti ons wi th the co untri es of the Eu ro -
pe an Uni on, which Se rbia is se eki ng to jo in, and co st
pro-Eu ro pe an fo rces the su ppo rt Be lgra de ne eded to
imple me nt be la ted inte rnal syste mic re fo rms cru ci al to
bo th its po li ti cal co urse and the mid-te rm fu tu re of the
co untry. The re acti on to Ko so vo ’s de cla ra ti on was re -
fle cted in di plo ma tic acti on — do wngra di ng di plo ma tic
ti es wi th co untri es that re co gni zed Ko so vo — , in the
tra nsfer of the issue to the le gal te rra in and in fi rm di -
sa ppro val of any re co gni ti on of Ko so vo in bi la te ral, and
espe ci ally mu lti la te ral fo ru ms. The di plo ma tic acti on
was Se rbi a’s uni la te ral mo ve, but tra nsfe rri ng the pro -
blem onto the le gal te rra in and blo cki ng fu rther re co -
gni ti ons re qu ired alli es. The pri ma ry lo gi cal cho ice for
Se rbia was the Ru ssi an Fe de ra ti on, a co untry which did
not li ke the pre ce de nt set by Ko so vo and which ne eded
to pu rsue its inte re sts in the We ste rn Ba lka ns.
Be twe en 2007 and 2009, Se rbi a’s fo re ign po li cy to wa -
rds Ru ssia shi fted, wi th an open fo rmu la ti on of its plan
to draw clo ser to Ru ssia and si mu lta ne ou sly wo rk on
EU inte gra ti on. Ne go ti ati ons on the tra nsit of the „So -
uth Stre am“ gas ro ute thro ugh Se rbia and the sa le of
NIS sta rted in 2007, 5 aro und the ti me when ne go ti ati -
ons on the sta tus of Ko so vo under the au spi ces of the
tro ika of re pre se nta ti ves of the EU, the USA and Ru -
ssia we re co mi ng to an end. Se eki ng to assu re its su -
ppo rt, Se rbia offe red Ru ssia a lu cra ti ve pri va ti za ti on
de al invo lvi ng the sa le of 51 pe rce nt pri va ti za ti on of
the Se rbi an Oil Indu stry (NIS) to Ru ssi an inte re sts, in
excha nge for Ru ssi a’s pro mi se that a bra nch of „So uth
Stre am“ wo uld go thro ugh Se rbia and that the unde -
rgro und gas sto ra ge fa ci li ty „Ba na tski dvor“ wo uld be
co nstru cted. In bo th ca ses the owne rship ra tio wo uld
be 51% - 49% in fa vo ur of Ru ssia. 6
After spe ci al pa rli ame nta ry ele cti ons and the appo -
intme nt of new go ve rnme nt in Ju ly 2008, the po li ti cs
of re lyi ng on Ru ssia, bo th re ga rdi ng the sta tus of Ko -
so vo and other inte rna ti onal issu es, co nti nu ed. Si nce
Ja nu ary 2009, or mo re pre ci se ly, si nce the Amba ssa -
do rs Co nfe re nce in Be lgra de, Mo scow assu med a pla -
ce ne xt to Bru sse ls and Wa shi ngton, an enha nced ro le
co mpa red to the pe ri od be fo re 2005. 7 Ai ded by Ru -
ssia, Se rbia ma na ged to se cu re the UN Ge ne ral Asse -
mbly’s su ppo rt for a re so lu ti on which asked the Inte -
rna ti onal Co urt of Ju sti ce to gi ve an opi ni on on the le -
ga li ty of Ko so vo ’s inde pe nde nce de cla ra ti on.
The co nve rge nce of Se rbi a’s inte re sts in pre se rvi ng its
te rri to ri al inte gri ty and Ru ssi a’s inte re sts in pre ve nti ng
the le ga li za ti on of the pre ce de nt set by Ko so vo ’s inde -
pe nde nce was fu rther stre ngthe ned by co ncre te, pra -
cti cal co nve rge nce of the two co untri es. Be si des the
ene rgy se ctor de als, a Mo scow Ba nk bra nch offi ce was
ope ned, and the re are pla ns for other ma jor Ru ssi an
ba nks, such as Ga zprom Ba nk, to enter the Se rbi an
ma rket, fu rther impro vi ng co ndi ti ons for the spre ad of
Ru ssi an bu si ness in Se rbia. The re ha ve be en a few Ru -
ssi an co mme rci al inve stme nts, and the li st of pro du cts
on which no or re du ced du ty is pa id has be en exte -
nded. 8 Amo ng other fo rms of mi li ta ry co ope ra ti on 9 ,
Ru ssi an engi ne ers ha ve si nce April 2009 be en re mo vi -
ng une xplo ded bo mbs le ft over from the 1999 NA TO
bo mbi ng 10 . When Ru ssi an pre si de nt Me dve dev vi si ted
Be lgra de on Octo ber 20, 2009, an agre eme nt was si -
gned on Ru ssi an-Se rbia co ope ra ti on in hu ma ni ta ri an
and na tu ral di sa ste rs and other eme rge ncy si tu ati ons.
When the issue of Ko so vo was tra nsfe rred to the le gal
te rra in, wi th the cle ar me ssa ge that the insti tu ti ons in
which Ru ssia has a ve to ri ght wo uld not re co gni ze Ko -
so vo, and after the di scu ssi on be fo re the Inte rna ti onal
Co urt of Ju sti ce in The Ha gue, the pro cess of Se rbi -
an-Ru ssi an co nve rge nce was co mple ted. Even tho ugh
Se rbia tu rned its fo re ign po li cy co urse to wa rds the di -
re cti on of the Eu ro-Atla ntic co mmu ni ty in la te 2009
wi th an appli ca ti on for Eu ro pe an Uni on me mbe rship,
Ru ssi a’s influ ence in Se rbia re ma ined inta ct.
* * *
When in ea rly 2010 Se rbi a’s Mi ni ster of De fe nse, Dra -
gan [u ta no vac, ra ised the issue of Se rbi a’s entry into
NA TO 11 , his wo rds eli ci ted a te mpe stu ous re acti on.
Le adi ng oppo si ti on le ade rs asked for a re fe re ndum
whe re the pe ople wo uld de ci de 12 , a re spo nse ba sed
on bo th the emo ti onal anta go ni sm to wa rds NA TO for
the 1999 bo mbi ng of Yu go sla via, and the Pe ople ’s Asse -
mbly Re so lu ti on 125/07 of De ce mber 2007, which
pro cla imed Se rbi a’s mi li ta ry ne utral until a re fe re ndum
on the issue was orga ni zed.
Ru ssi an offi ci als ste pped in lo udly expre ssi ng the ir opi -
ni on, i.e. the ir oppo si ti on to Se rbi a’s me mbe rship in
NA TO: the Mi ni ster of Fo re ign Affa irs, La vrov, sa id he
tho ught the ma jo ri ty of Se rbi a’s pe ople we re aga inst
the ir co untry jo ini ng NA TO 13 and the cha irman of the