DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

and the one in which Ye me ni fo rces ki lled the mi li ta ry
le ader of Al Qa eda in Ara bi an Pe ni nsu la Qa ssem Al-
Ri mi and his fi ve clo se st alli es. 13 In spi te of all this, the
me ssa ge has be en se nt – any mi li ta ry ope ra ti on by fo -
re ign armed fo rces on Ye me ni so il wi ll be met wi th
stro ng re si sta nce by, ma ybe not all, but a si gni fi ca nt nu -
mber of Mu sli ms, bo th in Ye men and wo rldwi de.
Pa ul Ro ge rs re mi nded the pu blic at the Open De mo -
cra cy Po rtal that Ba ra ck Oba ma mi ght ha ve de li ve red
an impre ssi ve spe ech in Ca iro in Ju ne 2009 on re la ti -
ons wi th Isla mic wo rld, but this can ea si ly be tu rned
into an atte mpt at de ce it: the re is a re ali stic po ssi bi li ty
that in ca se Ame ri ca inte rve nes in Ye men, Oba ma wi ll
be po rtra yed as a cru sa der, an ene my who has occu -
pi ed Iraq and Afgha ni stan, has be en ste eri ng the Pa ki -
sta ni go ve rnme nt, armi ng and su ppo rti ng the Zi oni st
tro ops which are re pre ssi ng Pa le sti ni ans , and is now
ki lli ng Mu sli ms in yet ano ther sta te. This is a stro ng and
da nge ro us di sco urse wi th va st po te nti al to influ ence
pu blic opi ni on. 14 * * *
In Ye men, Ame ri ca ns ha ve fa llen into the sa me trap in
which they fe ll so ma ny ti mes in Arab co untri es – once
aga in they had to su ppo rt a di cta to rship re gi me unpo -
pu lar amo ng Ame ri ca ns, in order to fi ght aga inst a di -
re ct te rro ri st thre at, which mi ght le ad to the ir wi nni ng
a ba ttle, but de fi ni te ly not the war. To co mpli ca te thi -
ngs fu rther, the ro le of the ru li ng Ye me ni re gi me, to -
ge ther wi th pre si de nt Ali Abdu llah Sa leh — in his own
wo rds „the pro te ctor of de mo cra cy“ — in stre ngthe -
ni ng Al Qa eda ’s po si ti on sho uld not be igno red.
It is an open se cret in Isla mic mi li ta ry ci rcles that Ye -
men was, for a lo ng ti me, a ba se in which mi li ta nts we -
re tra ined and se nt to ra di cal hi gh-scho ols and
uni ve rsi ti es, from whe re they we nt to ji had ba ttle fi elds
from Afgha ni stan to Alge ria. All this was ma de po ssi -
ble by the ta cit endo rse me nt of the ru li ng re gi me which
used mi li ta nt fu nda me nta li sts to re stra in the di sco nte -
nt of the Shi ite po pu la ti on. Ye me n’s po pu la ti on are
53% Su nni and 47% Shi ite but the li on’s sha re of po -
li ti cal po wer and mo ney is in the ha nds of the Su nni –
a re ason why the Ho uthi re be ls, wi th su ppo rt from
Iran, sta rted the ir fi ght aga inst a co ali ti on of Ye me ni go -
ve rnme nt tro ops and Sa udi mi li ta ry fo rces. Ali Abdu -
llah Sa leh, ru ler of the Ye me ni po li ti cal sce ne for over
31 ye ars, often used mi li ta nt Isla mi sts for pro xy wa rs in
bu ffer zo nes, which is why Ye men be ca me one of the
la st ha rbo rs for Al Qa eda ’s ide olo gi sts and mi li ta nts,
espe ci ally after they we re ba ni shed from Sa udi Ara bia.
The hi sto ri cal bo nds be twe en the Ye me ni go ve rnme nt
and Al Qa eda or si mi lar orga ni za ti ons are empha si zed
by nu me ro us inte rna ti onal expe rts and ana lysts who
ha ve be en se archi ng for the ro ots of Al Qa eda ’s influ -
ence in Ye men. In a Ja nu ary sto ry for the Inte rna ti -
onal Re la ti ons and Se cu ri ty Ne two rk’s ’Se cu ri ty
Wa tch’, re po rter Do me nic Mo ran sa ys „the re is se ri -
ous evi de nce that the go ve rnme nt used to ma ke de als
wi th gro ups li ke Al Qa eda in Ara bi an Pe ni nsu la“. 15
In his New Yo rk Ti mes sto ry on Al Eman uni ve rsi ty —
fo unded and ma na ged by the ini ti ator of the re ce nt fetva,
She ik Abdul Ma jid al-Zi nda ni — Ste ven Erla nger
po ints to clo se re la ti ons be twe en She ik al-Zi nda ni and
one of Abdu llah Sa le h’s clo se st alli es, ge ne ral Ali Mo -
hsen. Ali Mo hsen, to ge ther wi th fi na nci ers from Sa udi
Ara bia, is co nsi de red to be one of the ma jor su ppo -
rte rs of al-Zi nda ni and his pro je cts.
„Mr. Mo hsen, a ge ne ral who is cu rre ntly le adi ng the
war aga inst a Ho uthi re be lli on in the no rth, also re cru -
ited tho usa nds of Ye me nis to fi ght the So vi ets in Afgha -
ni stan. His bri ga des re tu rned vi cto ri ous, and Mr. Sa leh
has used them si nce to he lp de fe at the so uth in the
1994 ci vil war, and aga inst the Ho uthis. So me fi ghte rs,
of co urse, ha ve mi gra ted to Al Qa eda.
When no rth and so uth Ye men we re uni ted in 1990,
She ik Zi nda ni acce pted Mr. Sa le h’s ru le and was gra -
nted this hu ge area of go ve rnme nt la nd on the we ste -
rn edge of Sa na for the uni ve rsi ty — adjo ini ng a la rge
mi li ta ry ba se, which is Mr. Mo hse n’s he adqu arte rs.“ 16
Wi th all the se co mpli ca ted alli ances in which Al Qa -
eda sympa thi ze rs fe el at ho me, it sho uld not be fo rgo -
tten that Ye men is a tri bal so ci ety in which tri bal
alli ances and lo ya lty to tri bal co mmu ni ty by far ou twe -
igh lo ya lty to wa rds the sta te and its la ws. The go ve -
rnme nt in Sa na sho uld be ar this in mi nd eve ry ti me it
ente rs any fo rm of open fi ght aga inst indi vi du als be lo -
ngi ng to Al Qa eda.
* * *
The re is a si gni fi ca nt nu mber of pe ople who, wi tho ut
any su ppo rti ng evi de nce, be li eve that the fa iled atta ck
of the Ni ge ri an on the Ame ri can fli ght was we lco med
by bo th the Ye me ni army and its po li ti cal le ade rship,
which re ce ived hi ghly ne eded fi na nci al and mi li ta ry su -
ppo rt exa ctly at the mo me nt it be ca me obvi ous7 they
we re not wi nni ng the war aga inst the incre asi ngly be -
tter armed re be ls. It wi ll pro ba bly ne ver be po ssi ble
to pro ve how much Ye me ni inte lli ge nce se rvi ces knew 63