DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

fe nse sta rted to di spo se of so me AME that was alre ady owned
by the Sta te and ide nti fi ed as su rplus. This di spo sal was ca rri -
ed out thro ugh expo rt and de stru cti on wi th the fi na nci al assi -
sta nce pro vi ded by the Uni ted Na ti ons De ve lo pme nt Pro gram
BiH. Wi th this di spo sal pro cess, BiH su cce eded in ge tti ng rid
of mo st of its su rplus we apo ns (331,900 pi eces expo rted and
abo ut 90,000 pi eces de stro yed), but only a sma ll pa rt of the
su rplus ammu ni ti on (1,648 to ns).
Six ye ars la ter, the Mi ni stry of De fe nse co nsi de rs that it now
ho lds aro und 95,000 surplus we apo ns and so me 25,000 to ns
of su rplus ammu ni ti on. AFBiH expe rts ha ve ide nti fi ed appro -
xi ma te ly 5,000 to ns of the se su rplus ammu ni ti on sto res as be -
ing unsafe, but the Inte rna ti onal Co mmu ni ty has a di ffe re nt
opi ni on. Acco rdi ng to spe ci ali sts of EU FOR, NA TO, OSCE
and UNDP, usi ng inte rna ti ona lly ackno wle dged cri te ria and info
rma ti on from the U.S. Go ve rnme nt’s De fe nse Thre at Re du -
cti on Age ncy (DTRA), all 25,000 to ns of the su rplus
ammu ni ti on is unsa fe. So me pi eces and lo ts of ammu ni ti on
are obvi ou sly in po or co ndi ti on, ma ki ng them unsa fe to use
and, in so me insta nces, to ha ndle. Also, the da tes of ma nu fa -
ctu re indi ca te that they are now over-aged, which le ads to the
bre ak do wn of che mi cal co mpo ne nts and ca si ngs, ma ki ng the
ite ms vo la ti le. Fu rthe rmo re, a la ck of re co rds on the co mple -
te sto ra ge hi sto ry of each lot, co mbi ned wi th kno wle dge of
po or sto ra ge co ndi ti ons ha ve led to a la ck of co nfi de nce in usi -
ng the ite ms for the ir ini ti al, inte nded mi li ta ry pu rpo se.
In 2009, po li ti cal au tho ri ti es pla ced a gre at de al of pre ssu re
on the BiH MoD to pro po se a su rplus AME di spo sal plan
that wo uld su it va ri ous po li ti cal inte re sts. Se ve ral dra fts had
be en blo cked insi de the MoD for re aso ns that inclu ded ma -
ki ng sa les the pre fe rred me thod of di spo sal. This incre ased
the amo unt of ti me re qu ired to de ve lop and fo rwa rd the
MO D’s fi nal pro po sal to the BiH Pre si de ncy.
On 10 Ju ne 2009, the BiH Pre si de ncy de ci ded to sta rt wi th
the re mo val of the se su rplu ses, wi th di spo sal thro ugh sa les
and do na ti on as the pri ma ry me ans. This De ci si on was co -
ntra ry to the re co mme nda ti ons and urgi ngs of the Inte rna -
ti onal Co mmu ni ty, which implo red the BiH Pre si de ncy to
de ci de on de stru cti on as the pre fe rred me thod of di spo sal,
as per the Sta te ’s OSCE po li ti co-mi li ta ry do cu me nts. 3 Mo -
re over, the BiH Pre si de ncy fa iled to fix a de adli ne for co -
mple ti ng eve ntu al expo rt co ntra cts, de spi te wa rni ngs by the
Inte rna ti onal Co mmu ni ty that this la ck of fi xed de adli ne wi ll
incre ase the ri sks to the envi ro nme nt and po pu la ce ca used
by sto ckpi li ng the se da nge ro us ite ms.
Ho we ver ca pa ble BiH may be of acti ng on its own, po li ti -
cal and te chni cal obsta cles are pre ve nti ng fu ll uti li za ti on.
For exa mple, in 2009, less than 1,200 to ns of ammu ni ti on
(one thi rd of the ca pa ci ty) we re de stro yed and so far in
2010 the re is li ttle de mo nstra ti on of wi lli ngness to incre -
ase this amo unt.
What are the obsta cles? So me indi vi du als and po li ti cal gro -
ups co nti nue to thi nk that BiH, its enti ti es and po ssi bly ce -
rta in co mpa ni es can ma ke si gni fi ca nt fi na nci al pro fi ts from
se lli ng the su rplus we apo ns and se le cted lo ts of su rplus ammu
ni ti on. To this aim, they are qu esti oni ng the le ga li ty of
the tri-la te ral Tra nsfer Agre eme nt, re fe rred to ea rli er. The -
ir go al is to de lay the de stru cti on pro cess until the other si -
gna to ri es agree to sta rt new po li ti cal ne go ti ati ons. It is cle ar
that the ir pri ori ty is not the sa fe ty of the ir ci ti ze ns but fi na -
nci al inte re sts. The po si ti on of the Inte rna ti onal Co mmu ni -
ty is that si gni fi ca nt pro fi ts are unli ke ly be ca use the re is no
le gal ma rket for the se ite ms and the ri sk to the envi ro nme -
nt and the po pu la ti on re su lti ng from an acci de nt, or an inci -
de nt of se lf-igni ti on is incre asi ng.
The se sa me po li ti cal influ ences are cha lle ngi ng a pro vi si on
of the Tra nsfer of Owne rship Agre eme nt which de scri bes
the sha ri ng of any pro fi ts from the sa les of scrap ma te ri al
which re su lts from de stru cti on. This di spu te has si gni fi ca -
ntly ha mpe red the de stru cti on le ve ls at the two ma in de mi -
Exa mple of su rplus mi li ta ry ammu ni ti on and asso ci ated
ma te ri als be ing sto red in AFBiH sto ra ge si tes
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When addi ng all mi li ta ry and ci vi li an BiH ca pa ci ti es, the BiH
au tho ri ti es and the Inte rna ti onal Co mmu ni ty co nsi der that
as much as 3,000 to ns of ammu ni ti on can be de stro yed by
BiH fa ci li ti es in one ye ar. Thro ugh a si mple ca lcu la ti on, it
wi ll ta ke ei ght ye ars, wo rki ng at fu ll pa ce, to de stroy such
su rplus ite ms. In addi ti on, du ri ng the sa me pe ri od, the cu -
rre nt pe rspe cti ve ammu ni ti on wi ll re ach the ir expi ry da te
of sa fe use, thus addi ng three addi ti onal ye ars to the to tal
ammu ni ti on de stru cti on pro cess; i.e., 11 ye ars.