DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

Inte rna ti onal Po li ti cs in BiH
The Po li ti cs of the Inte rna ti o nal
Co mmu ni ty to wa rds BiH from
Da yton until To day
Bo snia and He rze go vi na:
The Cru mbli ng Ba lkan Ke ysto ne
50
By: Marko Attila Hoare
We ste rn na ti ons la ck the wi ll
to ta ke the ra di cal me asu res
ne ce ssa ry to re ve rse the
di si nte gra ti ve pro cess in
Bo snia-He rze go vi na.
If Bo snia-He rze go vi na
co lla pses, the enti re order in
the We ste rn Ba lka ns co uld
co lla pse wi th it.
The author is a Re ader at the
Uni ve rsi ty of Ki ngston,
Uni ted Ki ngdom.
To day, over fo urte en ye ars si nce the Da yton Acco rd
bro ught an end to the war in Bo snia-He rze go vi na, the
co untry appe ars clo ser to re ne wed bre akdo wn and cri -
sis than at any ti me si nce the war ended. The unde rlyi -
ng re ason for this li es in the dysfu ncti onal co nsti tu ti onal
stru ctu re fo isted upon Bo snia-He rze go vi na by the US
in 1995. Yet the re ason why Bo snia-He rze go vi na ’s pro -
ble ms are co mi ng to a he ad now, fo urte en ye ars after
Da yton, mu st be so ught in the inte rna ti onal ci rcu msta -
nces, which are far less fa vo ura ble to the co untry than
they we re even in the mi ddle of the la st de ca de, when
its re co ve ry appe ared to be mo st su cce ssful. To unde -
rsta nd Bo snia-He rze go vi na ’s cu rre nt cri sis, it is ne ce -
ssa ry to exa mi ne the ge opo li ti cal fa cto rs that ha ve
re ve aled ju st how tra nsi ent was this re co ve ry, bu ilt as
it was upon su pe rfi ci al re fo rms on the pa rt of the inte -
rna ti onal admi ni stra ti on that fa iled to address the fu -
nda me ntal fla ws in the stru ctu re of the po st-1995
Bo sni an sta te.
Bo snia-He rze go vi na ’s co nte mpo ra ry cri sis is ma ni fe -
sted abo ve all in the aggre ssi ve ly se pa ra ti st cha ra cter
of the re gi me of Mi lo rad Do dik, the Pri me Mi ni ster of
the Se rb Re pu blic (Re pu bli ka Srpska – RS). Do dik ope -
nly ta lks of bri ngi ng abo ut his enti ty’s se ce ssi on; the
RS’s re ce ntly pa ssed law on re fe re nda appe ars to ha -
ve be en de si gned wi th this aim in mi nd. 1 Go ne is the
Bo sni an Se rb le ade rshi p’s rhe to ric of a few ye ars ba -
ck, of re co nci li ati on and mo de ra ti on. Do dik now lo -
udly enga ges in atro ci ty de ni al vis-à-vis Se rb
war-cri mes, and re ce ntly ga ve a wa rm we lco me to co -
nvi cted war cri mi nal Bi lja na Pla v{i }, fo llo wi ng her ea -
rly re le ase from pri son in Swe den. 2 Me anwhi le, all the
indi ca ti ons are that the Bo sni aks wo uld re spo nd to a
de cla ra ti on of inde pe nde nce on the pa rt of the RS by
go ing ba ck to war. Such a co nfli ct wo uld not re ma in
co nfi ned to Bo snia-He rze go vi na. Ou tgo ing Cro ati an
pre si de nt Stje pan Me si } re ce ntly thre ate ned that Cro -
atia wo uld re spo nd mi li ta ri ly to an atte mpt at se ce ssi -
on by the RS. 3
The inte rna ti onal co mmu ni ty is be gi nni ng to wa ke up
to the da nger of re ne wed co lla pse in Bo snia-He rze go -
vi na, yet appe ars to be una ble to re spo nd de ci si ve ly.