DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

Ta lks la st au tu mn on co nsti tu ti onal re fo rm he ld at Bu -
tmir, ne ar Sa ra je vo, co nve ned by re pre se nta ti ves of the
EU and US, ca me to no thi ng. The Bu tmir pa cka ge pro -
po sed me re ly so me mi nor ti nke ri ng wi th the Bo sni an
co nsti tu ti onal stru ctu re; a stru ctu re that has pro ven unwo
rka ble. 4 Thus Bo snia-He rze go vi na, ha vi ng be en the
gre at ble mi sh on the re co rd of the EU and US wi th re -
ga rd to the fo rme rly Co mmu ni st pa rt of Eu ro pe in the
1990s, is to day the one co untry in the re gi on for which
the ou tlo ok appe ars ble ak.
The Bo sni an exa mple sta nds aga inst any fa ci le mo del
of abso lu te pro gress in Eu ro pe an de ve lo pme nt in 1989,
so me thi ng that re qu ires expla na ti on. Bo snia-He rze go -
vi na is a sta te wi th an unwo rka ble co nsti tu ti onal order,
one that ensu res that the sta te ca nnot fu ncti on. Bo -
snia-He rze go vi na is di vi ded be twe en two enti ti es – the
RS and the Fe de ra ti on of Bo snia-He rze go vi na, which
is a bi-na ti onal Bo sni ak and Cro at enti ty. The ce ntral
sta te is who lly ema scu la ted, wi th mo st po wer de vo lvi -
ng to the enti ti es. Of the se, it is the RS that is the mo -
st vi able enti ty, owi ng to its uni ta ry stru ctu re and
na ti onal ho mo ge ne ity. Yet this vi abi li ty of the RS is bad
for Bo snia-He rze go vi na, si nce the stro nger it is, the
stro nger is its abi li ty to obstru ct Bo snia-He rce go vi na ’s
fu ncti oni ng. A stro nger RS ena bles its le ade rship to pu -
rsue its go al of a de fa cto or de ju re inde pe nde nt Bo -
sni an Se rb sta te.
Co nve rse ly, the Bo sni an Fe de ra ti on is do mi na ted by ele
me nts that su ppo rt or acce pt a uni fi ed Bo snia-He rce -
go vi na. The Fe de ra ti on co uld in pri nci ple act as the
nu cle us of a re vi ved Bo snia-He rce go vi na. But the Fe -
de ra ti on is ha ndi ca pped by the di ffe re nces be twe en
Bo sni aks and Cro ats, wi th the Cro ats fe eli ng ma rgi na -
li sed by the nu me ri ca lly do mi na nt Bo sni aks. Fu rthe -
rmo re, the co nsti tu ti onal stru ctu re of the Fe de ra ti on
is pa ra lysed by its di vi si on be twe en ca nto ns – admi ni -
stra ti ve enti ti es which re du ce the po wer of the Fe de -
ral go ve rnme nt. The Bo sni an sta te is the re fo re cri ppled
by the di vi si on of co mpe te nci es be twe en mu lti ple la -
ye rs of bu re au cra cy and by the ema scu la ti on of tho se
orga ns of the sta te which sho uld in pri nci ple be acti ng
as inte gra ti ng fa cto rs – the ce ntral and Fe de ral au tho -
ri ti es. The Bo sni an eco no my is cri ppled by the eno -
rmo us co st of this bu re au cra cy, as we ll as by the hu ge
co rru pti on of the Bo sni an po li ti cal cla sses.
Me anwhi le, the co nfli cti ng go als of Bo sni ak, Se rb and
Cro at po li ti ci ans ensu re that the sta te ca nnot be re fo -
rmed, si nce any ste ps that co uld pro mo te a stro nger
and mo re fu ncti oni ng Bo sni an sta te and which wo uld
enjoy the su ppo rt of Bo sni an ele me nts that su ppo rt
inte gra ti on – abo ve all Bo sni aks, also non-na ti ona li st
Se rbs and Cro ats – wo uld be oppo sed by RS po li ti ci -
ans for the sa me re ason. The re inte gra ti on of Bo snia-
He rze go vi na wo uld the re fo re re qu ire me asu res to be
impo sed uni la te ra lly in the fa ce of Se rb and po ssi bly
Cro at oppo si ti on, and this is so me thi ng the inte rna ti -
onal co mmu ni ty has not be en wi lli ng to do.
Bo snia-He rze go vi na, in fa ct, se rves as an abje ct le sson
that you ca nnot ha ve a su cce ssful po st-war re co ve ry
unless you end the war on the ri ght ba sis and impo se
a se ttle me nt de si gned to wo rk, so me thi ng that may be
illu stra ted thro ugh a co mpa ri son of the Da yton se ttle -
me nt wi th the se ttle me nt in Eu ro pe after Wo rld War
II. The Alli ed po we rs set out to de fe at Ge rma ny to ta -
lly in Wo rld War II; Ge rma ny was fo rced to su rre nder
unco ndi ti ona lly; the Ge rman re gi me re spo nsi ble for
ca usi ng the war was re mo ved from po wer; le adi ng Ge -
rman war cri mi na ls we re tri ed and exe cu ted; Ge rma -
ny itse lf was cut do wn to si ze, te rri to ri ally tru nca ted
and occu pi ed. So, on this ba sis, a su cce ssful po st-war
re co ve ry in Eu ro pe was po ssi ble. In the ca se of Bo snia-
He rze go vi na, the go als and po li ci es of the inte rna ti onal
co mmu ni ty co uld not ha ve be en mo re di ffe re nt (the
"inte rna ti onal co mmu ni ty" he re me ans the po we rs
that impo se the se ttle me nt).
In impo si ng a se ttle me nt on Bo snia-He rze go vi na in
1995, the US and the de mo cra tic sta tes of Eu ro pe we -
re not ai mi ng to de fe at tho se re spo nsi ble for the war
and re ve rse the ir acts of co nqu est. On the co ntra ry,
the Da yton se ttle me nt was impo sed in 1995 to prevent
the de fe at of Se rbia and the Bo sni an Se rb re be ls. This
is not the pla ce to go into a de ta iled ana lysis of the di -
plo ma tic ba ckgro und to the Da yton se ttle me nt, but in
a nu tshe ll: the do mi na nt We ste rn po li cy be twe en the
ou tbre ak of the Bo sni an war in 1992 until 1995 under
Bri ti sh and Fre nch le ade rship, was not to de fe at or
even to ide nti fy the si de gu ilty of ca usi ng the war, ra -
ther to pu rsue a ne go ti ated se ttle me nt. This ne ce ssa -
ri ly me ant co nce di ng at le ast so me of the go als of
Slo bo dan Mi lo {e vi }’s Se rbia and the Bo sni an Se rb re -
be ls. The se then had to be re co nci led wi th the fo rmal
co mmi tme nt to re je cti ng fo rci ble cha nges of inte rna ti -
onal bo rde rs. All Bo sni an pe ace pla ns tri ed to wed the
co nce pt of Bo sni an pa rti ti on wi th the co nce pt of Bo -
sni an uni ty. The se fu nda me nta lly irre co nci la ble pri nci -
ples me ant that any se ttle me nt ba sed upon them was
go ing to be unwo rka ble.
The Cli nton Admi ni stra ti on in the US saw no na ti onal
inte re st in oppo si ng this Anglo-Fre nch po li cy, and re -
adi ly we nt alo ng wi th it. But unli ke the Bri ti sh and Fre -
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