DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY in Southeastern Europe, No 1

st ene my was NA TO itse lf. This is, in fa ct, a ca se of pre -
ve nti ve co nta inme nt stra te gy ai med at pe rsu adi ng NA TO
not to re cru it the co untri es at Ru ssi a’s bo rde rs, wi th invi -
si ble ai rcra fts and new so rts of co mbat ro cke ts be ing de -
mo nstra ted for this pu rpo se.
It was also at this Mu nich co nfe re nce that the glo bal re po -
si ti oni ng of NA TO was di scu ssed. Ra smu ssen anno unced
that NA TO wo uld be de ve lo pi ng into a glo bal se cu ri ty ce -
nter, bu ildi ng a se cu ri ty pa rtne rship ne two rk and invi ti ng
Chi na, India and Pa ki stan to co ope ra te wi th it mo re clo se -
ly. Bo th Ra smu ssen and Ge rma ny’s De fe nse Mi ni ster Ka -
rl-The odor zu Gu tte nbe rg also cle arly oppo sed NA TO as
a ri val to the UN. This de ve lo pme nt can be li nked to the
incre ased di plo ma tic acti vi ty of the USA in the UN, but
also to the ir tryi ng to so ften the mi stru st and re si sta nce
amo ng Asi an co untri es to wa rds NA TO, by se ndi ng the si -
gnal that a mo re mu lti la te ral ba la nce of po wer is we lco me.
One of the re aso ns for NA TO ’s new appro ach pa rti ally re -
su lts from Oba ma ’s big stra te gy ai med at a co mple te ban
on nu cle ar te sts and nu cle ar we apo ns and the pre ve nti on
of nu cle ar te rro ri sm, which sho uld be fo llo wed by the spre -
ad of NA TO ’s se cu ri ty umbre lla to the who le wo rld. In a
stra te gic se nse, this me ans the spre ad of sma rt we apo ns
and ra pid de plo yme nt tro ops to all ne ura lgic spo ts of the
wo rld. This assu mes less of a “lo cal” Eu ro pe an NA TO, and
mo re of a glo bal (re ad: Asi an) NA TO, co nsi sti ng of Mi ddle
Ea st and Ea st Asi an me mber sta tes. Thro ugh the co nse -
nsus wi th the Sha nghai Co ope ra ti on Orga ni za ti on (SCO)
— which was in fo rce du ri ng NA TO ’s inte rve nti on in Afgha -
ni stan in 2001, but not du ri ng the Ko so vo ope ra ti on in
1999, — and wi th ASE AN, NA TO sho uld be tra nsfo rmed
into the mi li ta ry unit of the UN. 8
What this sho uld imply for the co untri es of So uth-Ea ste rn
Eu ro pe was one of the to pi cs di scu ssed by Tu rki sh De fe -
nse Mi ni ster Ve cdi Gönül at the Mu nich Se cu ri ty Co nfe re -
nce pa nel ti tled “Is Ze ro Po ssi ble?”. He sta ted that Tu rkey
had no ne ed for nu cle ar we apo ns, be ca use it was “pa rt of
NA TO ’s se cu ri ty umbre lla, which was eno ugh” 9 . Wi ll Iran,
wi th its nu cle ar bo mb, we aken or stre ngthen the USA ’s influ
ence in the Mi ddle Ea st? Acco rdi ng to the Ame ri can co -
unter-sce na rio, Ira n’s nu cle ar bo mb wi ll do mo re for the
inte gra ti on of the Pe rsi an Gu lf sta tes than all Ame ri can po -
li ti cal effo rts so far. In fe ar of NA TO ’s or Ame ri ca ’s pe ne -
tra ti on into Chi na and the do mi na nce of the USA in the
We ste rn Pa ci fic, Chi na wa nts to stre ngthen its po si ti on in
Ce ntral Asia thro ugh its nu cle ar po li ti cs and pro li fe ra ti on
in Iran, No rth Ko rea and Pa ki stan. But it wi ll not appe ar
as NA TO ’s stra te gic oppo ne nt yet, but ra ther as Ru ssi a’s
stra te gic pa rtner and "a re spo nsi ble gre at po we r".
Gönül’s cla ims can ea si ly apply to other So uth-Ea ste rn Eu -
ro pe co untri es which are NA TO me mbe rs. Ho we ver, this
me mbe rship has a pri ce, and its co nse qu ences co uld cle -
arly be se en in Slo ve ni a’s and Cro ati a’s pa rti ci pa ti on in
NA TO ’s ISAF fo rce in Afgha ni stan: Cro atia wi ll ha ve to allo
ca te 400 mi lli on Ku na this ye ar for this pu rpo se alo ne,
se ndi ng pa rt of its gro und tro ops on co mpu lso ry le ave.
So uth-Ea ste rn Eu ro pe, ju st li ke We ste rn Eu ro pe, fi nds it
ea si er to fo llow the Ame ri can ge opo li ti cs of NA TO when
it is fo cu sed on gu ardi ng Eu ro pe an te rri to ry. Ro be rt Co -
oper, the Di re ctor-Ge ne ral for Exte rnal and Po li ti co-Mi li -
ta ry Affa irs at the Ge ne ral Se cre ta ri at of the Co uncil of
the Eu ro pe an Uni on, is wa rni ng the EU, inclu di ng So uth-
Ea ste rn Eu ro pe, that the re is “no such thi ng as free de fe -
nse”. 10 Unli ke in the ca se of the Co ld War, when the re
was a cle ar “co nfro nta ti on stra te gy” of the USA and NA -
TO to wa rds the USSR, NA TO ’s mo de rn glo bal stra te gy
is not co nfro nta ti onal, but assi mi la to ry in na tu re.
A va lid stra te gy, ho we ver, ta kes into acco unt all po ssi ble
opti ons. If the assi mi la ti on stra te gy ga ins mo me ntum,
NA TO wi ll ha ve mo ved be yo nd be ing an intra-we ste rn
me asu re for bu ildi ng se cu ri ty tru st — in this se nse, NA -
TO wi ll ha ve to “de-we ste rni ze” and the re by glo ba li ze
itse lf, which inclu des an expa nsi on to new Asi an me mbe -
rs. This wi ll, mo st ce rta inly, de cre ase the se cu ri ty bu rden
ca rri ed by Eu ro pe ans. On the co ntra ry, in ca se of inte -
rco nti ne ntal de plo yme nts, NA TO wi ll re ta in its Eu ro-
Atla ntic pro fi le, which wi ll le ad to la rger allo ca ti ons for
armi ng and the esta bli shi ng of far mo re co mplex mi li ta -
ry fo rma ti ons. n
NOTES:
1
Had`em Hajdarevi}, @ivot u akvariju ( Sarajevo, Dobra
knjiga, 2010) p. 79. /in print/
2
Danko Plevnik, Novi NATO ili stara geopolitika: strategijske
studije (Karlovac, Impressum, 1999) p. 50.
3
Ibid, pp. 61-62.
4
Alain Badiou, Polemics (London, New York, Verso,
2006) p. 68.
5
Ibid, p. 72.
6
Ibid.
7
Bates Gill, Rising Star: China’s New Security Diplomacy
(Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2007)
p. 73.
8
“NATO-SCO: Shaking Hands Over Pacific?”, EURISC
Foundation. The European Institute for Risk, Security
and Communication Management
(http://www.eurisc.org/euriscomments/153-natosco-shaking-hands-over-the-pacific.html,
accessed on 12
February 2010)
9
Ross Douthat, “The Dream of Zero”, The New York
Times, 8 February 2010.
10
Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and
Chaos in the Twenty-first Century (London, Atlantic
Books, 2003) p. 165
9