2013 Briefing Book - Print Version - Aipac

ISRAEL AT RISK
A Region in Flux
The “Arab Spring” has brought tectonic change to the Middle East, and has the potential to rewrite the
political order that has dominated the region for decades. With the rise of an Islamist regime in Egypt, the
lawlessness of Sinai, the deterioration of the Assad regime in Syria, the triumph of Hizballah in Lebanon
and uncertainty in Jordan, Israel can no longer rely on stability and predictability among its immediate
neighbors. Regional Arab powers such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are also
facing internal challenges that threaten regional stability. Beyond the Arab world, once strong Israeli-
Turkish relations have frayed as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the Islamist Justice and
Development Party has sought to distance Turkey from the Jewish state.
Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty Key to Regional Stability
With the downfall of Hosni Mubarak, the future of Egytian-Israeli peaceful relations has been
called into question. In 1979, Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with
Israel, removing the threat of attack by the Arab world’s most populous and powerful country.
Although the peace had been cold, Cairo adhered to its main treaty commitments: full diplomatic
relations; keeping the Sinai as a demilitarized buffer zone; permitting the presence in the Sinai of
the U.S.-led Multinational Force and Observers; and maintaining freedom of navigation through
the Suez Canal even for Israeli warships.
Turmoil in Egypt has raised questions about Cairo’s
commitment to its peace treaty with Israel.
Importantly, since the signing of the U.S.-
brokered peace treaty with Israel, Egypt
has been the key U.S. strategic ally in the
Arab world. Egypt worked with the United
States in opposing Islamic radicalism in its
many forms (Hamas in Gaza, al-Qaeda in
the entire region, Hizballah in Lebanon)
and had been a strong opponent of Iran’s
nuclear program and efforts to attain
regional hegemony. Egyptian troops even
participated alongside U.S. forces in the
liberation of Kuwait during the first Gulf
War in 1991. In return, Egypt benefited
from massive annual U.S. military and
economic assistance.
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