2013 Briefing Book - Print Version - Aipac

ISRAEL AT RISK
Muslim Brotherhood Gains Power
The election of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi—who co-founded the Egyptian
Commission for Resisting the Zionist Project—has raised concerns about Cairo’s future commitment to
peace with Israel.
In his first speech as president, Morsi pledged to “preserve international accords and obligations,”
but in the past he has called the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty “unfair” to Egypt’s interests
and accused Israel of repeated violations of the treaty. Indeed, Morsi comes from the Muslim
Brotherhood, a fundamentalist Islamist movement that spawned the U.S.-designated terrorist group
Hamas, which seeks Israel’s destruction. The Brotherhood continues to maintain close ties with the
group that now controls Gaza and has pressed for an opening of Egypt’s border with the territory.
Despite the domination of the Brotherhood in Egyptian politics today, and apart from extreme
anti-Israel statements by its leaders, Morsi himself has adopted a more restrained policy toward
Israel. In meetings with U.S. officials, he has expressed his intention to keep the Egypt-Israel peace
treaty intact. But the 1979 treaty remains unpopular with the Egyptian public, as most view it as
a concession to the United States and a relic of Mubarak’s harsh rule. Revising or abrogating the
treaty could gain Morsi wide public support. The United States has made it clear that the continued
flow of U.S. aid depends on Egypt’s honoring of the treaty.
On the domestic front, Morsi and the Brotherhood, in the absence of a parliament, have used the
presidency to push through several controversial acts claiming more powers. Widespread protests
of this power-grab eventually caused Morsi to rescind the decree, but in a rushed vote, a new
constitution was passed by Islamists, and subsequently put to a public referendum in December
2012. In this way the Brotherhood secured a new constitution not widely debated and that it
wrote almost entirely by itself.
Threats to Israel from Sinai Increasing
The dramatic changes now unfolding in Egypt have required Israel to rethink its long-held assumptions
about Egypt and prepare for enhanced threats. Egyptian security forces have lost control of Sinai, and
Bedouin tribes and factions carry out criminal and terrorist activity largely unencumbered. Tribes have
been involved in smuggling weapons to Gaza, including advanced rocketry and arms from Libya and
the Sudan, and have regularly attacked the pipeline running through Sinai that carries natural gas to
Israel. Reports also indicate that al-Qaeda and other jihadi terrorist groups are taking advantage of the
lawlessness in the area to set up training camps.
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