FY2010 - Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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Director’s R&D Fund— Emerging Science and Technology for Sustainable Bioenergy 05557 Decision Support for Secure and Sustainable Bioenergy System Paul Leiby, Rocio Uria Martinez, Gbadebo Oladosu, Cheng Liu, and Erin Webb Project Description Biofuels are hoped to advance environmental goals, improve energy security, and provide economic and social benefits in a sustainable manner. But biofuels are facing strong challenges on grounds of potential land and water degradation, CO 2 emissions, and shocks to food supply and food security. It is now understood that the particular configuration of practices, processes, and technologies used in the biofuels system will strongly influence emissions, impacts, and the degree to which sustainability goals are attained. While it is not yet fully understood, the energy security component of sustainability also depends on the choice of bioenergy methods and technologies. Energy security depends on the ability to avoid, diminish, or adjust to shocks to the supply system and price. The comprehensive understanding of this aspect of security and how it relates to technologies used, infrastructure, and practice has not yet been systematically researched and modeled for bioenergy, or any other energy technologies. This project moves proactively to address that major research and analytical gap by formulating and developing a model for assessing risk, variability, vulnerability, and resilience in the biofuels system, and the implications for sustainability, with a particular focus on energy security. The resulting product will respond to the opportunity to create what could eventually become an open and accepted standard for bioenergy security analysis. Mission Relevance Sustainability and energy security in particular are key objectives of the U.S. energy system. There are no known studies or systems analysis models addressing economic and energy security analysis for bioenergy. Formal systems analysis tools to measure and ensure the sustainability of bioenergy systems are of considerable relevance to the missions of the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE EERE) and other DOE offices, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ), and other offices and to the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Department of Defense (DOD) for biofuels. Basic energy security estimates have recently been incorporated in rulemakings on fuel economy (DOT) and renewable fuels and climate (EPA). The demand for more rigorous, defensible scientific assessments will necessarily grow as improved methods are developed and tools are available. Results and Accomplishments Project activities and progress toward goals were consistent with the milestones laid out for FY 2010, under the 2-year project plan. The project established a rigorous quantitative framework for bioenergy sustainability assessment. After surveying related models and literature, the Decision Support (model) framework was designed, formally specified, and documented. The model implementation approach combines a dual long- and short-run perspective. A dynamic optimization of long-run biofuel (and petroleum fuel) system design with respect to costs is used to select long-lived infrastructure (biorefineries, vehicles, etc.) annually through 2030. This is followed by short-run simulations of intra-year variations subject to important sources of volatility (e.g., droughts, floods, crop yields, and oil market shocks). The current version of the long-run, nonlinear dynamic model depicts seven stages in the feedstock’s path from farm to biorefinery enabling a detailed analysis of logistics related to feedstock transportation, preprocessing, and storage and includes three U.S. regions. 126
Director’s R&D Fund— Emerging Science and Technology for Sustainable Bioenergy Coding/implementation is done with GAMS/Symphony for optimization and Python for short-run simulation and linking utilities. Integration methods translate Polysys data to feedstock supply curves at flexible levels of aggregation. IBSAL data are utilized for feedstock logistics representation and costs. Collaboration with the Hilliard LDRD project team will generate spatially derived biorefinery siting and transportation costs. HyTrans/PHEV code modules will be adapted for fuel infrastructure and vehicle evolution. The Knowledge Development Framework will be utilized for data archiving and result warehousing. An initial Web-based Input/Output module was developed for visual display of data and results. Key Findings and Possible Applications. Preliminary model tests highlight the value of biorefinery flexibility, and the importance of the market for coproducts, in promoting the economic and energy security of biofuels. Applications will allow the testing of alternative biofuels technologies and pathways and alternative configurations of the biofuels system and thus provide measures of energy, economic, and environmental sustainability. 127
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FY2010 - Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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