FY2010 - Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Director’s R&D Fund—
Understanding Climate Change Impact: Energy, Carbon, and Water
water-related data relevant to the project. These data include Community Climate System Model Version
3 (CCSM3) post-processed model data and some preliminary CCSM4 data, MODIS remote sensing data,
International Boundary Water Commission data, and representative U.S. Geological Service data. We
developed a proof-of-concept tagging system for the metadata intended to facilitate the cross-disciplinary
identification of variables and annotations contained in datasets of interest to hydrology and related
science. This proof-of-concept tool provides the foundation to develop additional enhancements as
outlined in the proposal. The Earth System Grid (ESG), a DOE-funded effort, is the main venue for the
dissemination of CCSM and related climate model results. We are working to link our efforts with
ongoing efforts at ESG. Activity in this area includes (1) several meetings with the ESG ORNL PI and
team; (2) a plan to publish our analytical results through ESG; and (3) acquired deeper understanding of
the ESG infrastructure, which, in turn, is guiding the focus of our tool development effort. During the
summer we hired two undergraduates to assist in our work, one from East Tennessee State University and
one from the University of Tennessee. One student helped with our data gathering effort, and the other
did the coding for the tagging tool. In preparation for building the proof-of-concept system, we acquired a
9 terabyte data storage device that will be brought online early in FY 2011.
Information Shared
Lenhardt, W. Christopher, Marcia Branstetter, Anthony King, Line Pouchard, Kao Shih-Chieh, Dali
Wang, Andrew Runciman, and Jeremy Buckles. 2010. “Developing Climate Change Science
Informatics at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: An Essential Capability to Bridge Domain Science
and High Performance Computing.” Poster, ESIP Federation Summer 2010 Meeting, Knoxville, TN.
05893
Economic Losses Associated with Climate Extremes under
Conditions of Climatic and Socioeconomic Change
Benjamin L. Preston
Project Description
The economic costs of extreme weather events have increased markedly in recent decades, largely as a
result of socioeconomic processes and trends. Yet, quantitative understanding of the interactions between
climatic and socioeconomic change on economic damages from climatic extremes is lacking. The parallel
application of top-down and bottom-up analytical methods will be applied within a geographic
information system (GIS) environment to address this knowledge gap. The Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard
Model (HAZUS-MH) will be parameterized for a cross section of U.S. case study communities as part of
a bottom-up comparison of economic damages in response to simulated extreme events. Model sensitivity
will be tested using a range of hazard event return periods and observed and synthetic development
patterns. Reanalysis products from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as well
global and regional climate modeling will be used to quantify changes in the spatiotemporal distribution
of climatic extremes given anthropogenic climate change. To generalize simulation results across a range
of spatial scales, empirical models of hazard losses will be developed based upon U.S. county, state, and
national data for historical losses as well as data for extreme event frequencies and socioeconomic
conditions. These top-down models will then be perturbed with climate model projections of extremes
and socioeconomic scenarios to estimate future economic losses.
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