FY2010 - Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Director’s R&D Fund—
Understanding Climate Change Impact: Energy, Carbon, and Water
UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: ENERGY, CARBON,
AND WATER
05212
Uncertainty Assessment and Reduction for Climate Extremes and
Climate Change Impacts
Auroop R. Ganguly, Marcia L. Branstetter, David J. Erickson III, Shih-Chieh Kao, Evan A Kodra,
Esther S. Parish and Karsten J.K. Steinhaeuser, with Nitesh Chawla, Subimal Ghosh, Vipin Kumar,
Michael Steinbach (all no-cost academic collaborators), and Pierre Ngnepieba (partner through
HBCU Program)
Project Description
Climate extremes may be defined as severe hydrological or weather events, as well as large regional shifts
in climate patterns, caused or exacerbated by climate change or variability. While an individual climate
extreme may not be predictable, the statistical properties of certain types of extremes may be predictable
with physics-based computational models of climate or sophisticated mathematical analysis. Thus,
temperature extremes can be predicted with a relatively higher degree of certainty, while uncertainties
dominate for hydrologic predictions. Extreme events like tropical storms, landslides, wildfires, and storm
surge cannot be directly predicted by the current generation of climate models. However, projections of
the statistical properties of extreme events and regional climate change, along with their uncertainties, are
among the most critical inputs for climate change preparedness and mitigation. This project attempts to
improve the science of climate extremes and uncertainty based on hypothesis-guided analysis and
relatively hypothesis-free discovery processes.
Mission Relevance
The DOE Offices of Biological and Environmental Research and Advanced Scientific Computing
Research have emphasized the importance of climate extremes, uncertainty, and their impacts through
multiple strategic workshop reports and advisory board meetings focused on climate prediction,
integrated assessments, and computational requirements. This author attended one such DOE-sponsored
workshop entitled “Identifying Outstanding Grand Challenges in Climate Change Research: Guiding the
Department of Energy Strategic Planning” in March 2008. The methods and insights developed here are
important for multiple agencies such as the Department of Defense (DOD), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and National
Aeronautics and Space Administration. The DOD has already funded a synergistic activity through their
Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), while multiple possibilities are currently at various stages with
other federal agencies, including DOE.
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